Fantasy football expert Rich Hribar discusses the changing landscape of fantasy football and the value of second-year players in dynasty. They also delve into the impact of COVID-19 on the NFL, the rise of mobile quarterbacks, and the influence of mobile quarterbacks on the running back position. Additionally, they analyze Taj a Spears' prospects and assess a rookie wide receiver's potential in dynasty.
The fantasy football landscape is shifting towards valuing efficiency over workload for running backs, leading to a more volatile running back landscape.
Mobile quarterbacks have reduced rushing opportunities for running backs, resulting in a scarcity of versatile running backs in fantasy football.
The fragility of running back workloads, caused by increased competition for touches and reduced target shares, makes evaluating and ranking running backs based on potential opportunities and efficiency crucial in fantasy football.
Deep dives
The Shift Towards Efficiency Over Workload
The podcast discusses how there seems to be a shift in fantasy football towards valuing efficiency over workload when it comes to running backs. Anecdotally, it appears that players with massive ground game workloads did not necessarily produce fantasy points this season. This shift could be attributed to a few factors, such as the rise of mobile quarterbacks who take away rushing opportunities from running backs, the reduction in running back targets, and the overall scarcity of running backs who can do everything. These factors have led to a less predictable and more volatile running back landscape in fantasy football, where efficiency becomes a key factor in evaluating and choosing running backs.
The Impact of Mobile Quarterbacks
The podcast highlights the impact of mobile quarterbacks on the running back position. Mobile quarterbacks are commanding a higher percentage of rushing attempts, reducing the opportunities for running backs to carry the ball. They are also getting more design runs and accounting for a significant number of rushing touchdowns. As a result, running backs are seeing reduced carries, fewer targets, and lower touchdown opportunities. This has led to a scarcity of running backs who can contribute in all facets of the game, making running back selection more challenging in fantasy football.
The Fragility of Running Back Workloads
The podcast discusses the fragility of running back workloads, especially for those who do not receive a significant share of opportunities in their backfield. Players like Devon Achane, who may have high upside based on their talent and explosive playmaking ability, may not see consistent workloads. This fragility is a result of increased competition for touches, reduced target shares for running backs, and the rise of mobile quarterbacks. As a result, fantasy managers need to carefully evaluate and rank running backs based on their potential opportunities and efficiency within their offenses.
The Importance of Efficiency in Evaluating Running Backs
The podcast emphasizes the importance of efficiency in evaluating running backs. With reduced workloads and increased competition for touches, running backs who can make the most of their opportunities become highly valuable. Players like Devon Achane, who can generate explosive plays and contribute in multiple facets of the game, can still be impactful even with limited touches. This shift in focus towards efficiency over workload highlights the changing landscape of the running back position in fantasy football.
Drake London's Upside in Atlanta
Drake London, despite the departure of Arthur Smith, remains a top dynasty wide receiver option due to his age, potential, and opportunity with the Atlanta Falcons. He is one of the youngest wide receivers in the league, and his profile suggests he can be an elite player. His situation in Atlanta, playing alongside Kyle Pitts and potentially benefiting from changes in the wide receiver corps, further enhances his fantasy value.
Buying in on Noa Fant
Noa Fant, despite a relatively disappointing season in Seattle, presents an opportunity in dynasty leagues. At just 26 years old, Fant has already shown promise with two 90-target seasons on his resume. As the tight end position typically takes time to develop, Fant's potential for growth and a potential change in team environment make him an intriguing buy-low candidate. While he may not cost much to acquire, he can offer significant value and a possible breakout in the right situation.
Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis joins JJ to talk about how the fantasy football landscape is changing. They also discuss some high-profile second-year players -- like Puka Nacua and De'Von Achane -- and how to properly value those players in dynasty.
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