Market Volatility Raises Risk-On or Risk-Off Question
Mar 10, 2025
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Gina Martin Adams, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Equity Strategist, discusses the unsettling trends in tech stocks and S&P 500 earnings. Gwenaelle Huet from Schneider Electric shares insights on the EU's economic future and the urgency of advancing energy policies. Michael Mackenzie, a Bloomberg News Rates Reporter, analyzes how bond markets react amidst political turbulence and recession fears. Max Wasserman, Senior Portfolio Manager at Miramar Capital, provides strategic investment insights during heightened market volatility.
High profit expectations and weakening analyst revisions suggest a challenging fundamental backdrop for the stock market by 2025.
Geopolitical uncertainties and the transition to renewable energy are shaping investment strategies and growth prospects in Europe and the U.S.
Deep dives
Market Volatility and Economic Growth Concerns
Concerns about market volatility and economic growth are rising among investment strategists, particularly due to external factors such as tariff discussions and inconsistent economic signals. Major banks like Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase have recently adjusted their forecasts, citing the impact of tariffs introduced during the previous administration as a catalyst for slowing economic growth. The discussion highlights the decline in significant technology stocks, such as the MAG7, which have lost substantial value since their peak, contributing to broader concerns about market stability. These developments suggest that the stock market is undergoing a significant re-evaluation of growth expectations in light of ongoing economic uncertainties.
Impact of Tariffs on Consumer and Corporate Outlook
The tariffs implemented have been particularly detrimental to consumer stocks, as uncertainty surrounding their future creates a drag on market performance. Analysts emphasize that the technology and communication sectors are most exposed to the negative impacts of tariffs, which have dampened the optimism that characterized the market in recent years. Analysts argue that the narrative surrounding the administration's commitment to market safety has been undermined by mixed signals from the president regarding his focus on the stock market. This inconsistency has led to skepticism among investors about the longevity of current economic policies and their efficacy in stimulating growth.
Valuation Trends and Market Correction
Current market valuations remain high despite recent corrections, with some analysts suggesting that the market is still well above historical averages, particularly for large-cap stocks. The S&P 500, while experiencing a downturn, is still priced based on overly optimistic growth expectations, which are increasingly challenging to meet given current economic conditions. Analysts believe that simply returning to fair value prices may require further adjustments, highlighting the risk of prolonged underperformance. The environment has prompted discussions about international opportunities, with some regions showing potential for better performance compared to U.S. equities in the current landscape.
Geopolitical Challenges and Future Business Prospects
Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly surrounding U.S. tariffs and foreign policy, are creating a challenging business climate that could impact investment strategies. Companies like Schneider Electric express optimism about growth in Europe and the U.S., despite regulatory hurdles, particularly in the renewable energy sector. The shift towards energy transition is seen as a megatrend that will continue to drive demand, with businesses focusing on local markets to enhance resilience against geopolitical instability. However, the success of these strategies heavily depends on the implementation of supportive government policies that protect and promote industrial growth, highlighting a pressing need for actionable reforms.
Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Equity Strategist Gina Martin Adams discusses that while the cues from S&P 500 earnings generally support the outlook for stocks this year, the market's tolerance for risk is being dismantled by the combination of high profit expectations (they're the most elevated since 2018), tough comparisons and a year of weakening analyst revisions. That said, growth is still improving for cyclical sectors and sentiment-driving margin expectations are back on the rise despite problematic cues from inflation. The period of easy earnings beats is likely ending for much of the benchmark, suggesting the fundamental backdrop may become choppier in 2025. Gwenaelle Huet, Executive Vice President of Europe Operations at Schneider Electric, shares her thoughts on the EU’s economic future around energy policy. Bloomberg News Rates Reporter Michael Mackenzie explains why the bond market's Trump Trade is looking like a recession play. And Drive to the Close with Max Wasserman, Senior Portfolio Manager of Miramar Capital. Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. Producer: Paul Brennan.