The Exchange Record Shutdown, Fast-Casual Falters & Barry Sternlicht’s Warning for New York City 11/5/25
Nov 5, 2025
Eamon Javers, a Senior reporter focused on legal and policy at the Supreme Court, discusses the implications of the unprecedented government shutdown and its potential effects on Q4 GDP. Kate Rogers, a retail and restaurant reporter, examines the struggles of fast-casual chains like Cava, highlighting consumer pullback amid changing trends. Meanwhile, billionaire Barry Sternlicht raises alarms about the impact of new political leadership in New York City, warning of possible real estate and safety issues as businesses reconsider their presence.
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Shutdown Could Meaningfully Dent Q4 Growth
- The government shutdown became the longest in U.S. history and could shave up to two percentage points off Q4 GDP, per the CBO.
- Bipartisan talks continue but entrenched positions and filibuster math make a quick resolution uncertain.
Court Scrutinizes Tariff Authority
- The Supreme Court is weighing whether a 1977 law lets the president impose regulatory tariffs instead of Congress taxing.
- Justices showed skepticism about broad delegations that permanently shift power to the executive branch.
Market Priced For Perfection, Pullback Likely
- Markets hover near record highs despite political risks because investors expect mega-cap tech earnings to outpace the rest.
- A normal pullback of 5–10% is plausible if softening consumer data hits earnings and holiday spending.