Bloomberg Surveillance US Jobless Claims Fall to Three-Year Low
Dec 4, 2025
Neil Shearing, the Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics, shares his concerns about the markets overestimating potential Fed rate cuts, citing resilient U.S. growth and inflation risks. He discusses how China's deflation and overinvestment could influence global prices. Meanwhile, Heidi Crebo-Rediker, a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, analyzes the ongoing Russia-Ukraine negotiations, highlighting the challenges posed by hollow Russian promises and the need for stronger support for Ukraine's financing and reconstruction.
AI Snips
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Episode notes
AI Is A Multi-Year Supercycle
- AI is a multi-year supercycle that began with ChatGPT and is likely to keep outperforming broad markets.
- Mona Mahajan says investors should own AI-related tech but keep diversified to capture broader productivity gains.
Earnings, Not Valuation, Will Drive 2026
- S&P returns depend on earnings growth and valuation expansion, and earnings will be the main driver in 2026.
- Mona Mahajan forecasts near double-digit S&P earnings growth into 2026 supporting market gains.
Position For Rate-Cut Lags
- Expect Fed rate cuts to affect economic activity with a three-to-six-month lag.
- Mona Mahajan advises investors to favor economically sensitive cyclicals as cuts materialize and demand picks up.