21 Hats Podcast Dashboard: This Is Killing Small Businesses
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Dec 19, 2025 John Arensmeyer, Founder and CEO of Small Business Majority, dives into the troubling state of small businesses in America. He discusses recent survey findings showing revenue and staffing declines. John highlights the heavy burden of rising healthcare costs and reliance on marketplace subsidies. He also addresses the adverse effects of tariffs, immigration roundups, and federal budget cuts on small businesses. Despite these challenges, he notes a surprising optimism among business owners as they prepare for 2026, advocating for their rights and adapting to ongoing disruption.
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Small Businesses Hit By Converging Shocks
- Small businesses faced multiple simultaneous shocks in 2025 including tariffs, health care costs, immigration roundups, and federal cuts.
- John Arensmeyer says this convergence and resulting uncertainty have left optimism barely above pessimism among owners.
Survey Shows Worsening Revenue And Morale
- In Small Business Majority's fall survey 45% reported revenue declines and 24% cut headcount from the prior quarter.
- John highlights a near 50-50 split on optimism vs. pessimism as a troubling signal given entrepreneurs' natural optimism.
Marketplace Subsidies Are Critical For Owners
- Many small-business owners and their employees rely on ACA marketplace subsidies, and enhanced premium tax credits reaching millions.
- If those credits lapse, John warns payments could rise substantially and hit small-business owners and self-employed workers hard.