The policy forwards are too skinny

Ian is joined by Andrew Grantham this week, and the show begins by discussing why the Canadian economy appears to be growing much faster in Q4 compared to BoC expectations. The impact of previous supply-side restrictions, like the tragic wildfires in 2023 and the port strikes, are starting to filter through the data. This means Canada is seeing low-hanging fruit on the supply side of the economy, which should not have a big impact on inflation. The duo also discuss recent labour market trends in North America, and why conditions look to be less strong under-the-hood. Ian gives an update on CORRA and the eventual QT cessation announcement, focusing on the recent announcement that the Bank will discuss balance sheet normalization at an upcoming speech. The pair tie everything together and discuss the policy path priced by the market, and why it feels too ‘light’ given all the risks in the economy.