Episode 1142: What's Happening in Syria? w/ John Fieldhouse
Dec 5, 2024
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John Fieldhouse, an expert on Syrian affairs, dives into the complex dynamics of the Syrian civil war, shedding light on the roles of various factions and foreign powers like Russia and Iran. He explains the portrayal of 'moderate rebels' versus extremist groups, and discusses how the Assad regime is struggling economically while grappling with drug trade issues. Fieldhouse emphasizes the importance of understanding these conflicts to grasp their geopolitical implications, especially in the context of U.S. foreign policy towards Russia and regional stability.
The recent rebel offensive in Aleppo, led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, signifies a crucial shift in the Syrian civil war's dynamics and shows the vulnerability of Assad's regime.
The involvement of foreign powers, such as Russia and Iran, complicates the conflict, influencing regional power dynamics and the strategies of local actors amid shifting alliances.
Deep dives
The Role of Rebel Forces in Aleppo
An alliance of rebel groups, led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), recently launched a significant offensive in Aleppo, which is Syria's largest city. This marked a critical shift in the dynamics of the Syrian civil war, ultimately resulting in the rebels capturing the city after years of relative dormancy for rebel operations. The HTS coalition, which has historical ties to al-Qaeda, has successfully overrun government positions, catching both analysts and Syrian government forces off-guard. This offensive signifies a desperate attempt from the rebels to reclaim territory that was lost when the Assad regime regained control in 2016.
Military Dynamics and External Influences
The ongoing conflict in Aleppo is further complicated by the roles played by foreign powers, notably Russia and Iran, whose involvement has shifted due to their engagements in other regional conflicts, particularly Ukraine and Gaza. Rebel forces have taken advantage of this situation by establishing governance structures, indicative of a strategy to maintain control in liberated areas. Observations suggest that these groups are receiving support from Turkey and may even have backchannels with the US or Israel, although the exact nature of HTS's affiliations remains ambiguous. This geopolitical backdrop underlines how external actors influence the power struggles within Syria.
Challenges Facing Assad's Regime
The recent rebel offensives have highlighted significant vulnerabilities within Assad's government, which has struggled with a weak military presence, low morale, and a reliance on external aid from Iran and Russia. The Assad regime is portrayed as increasingly isolated, grappling with a deteriorating economy and international relationships, especially as its allies redirect resources elsewhere. Notably, allegations that Assad's government has turned Syria into a narco-state through drug trade have surfaced, further undermining their legitimacy. As rebel forces capitalize on these weaknesses, the Assad regime's stability appears increasingly precarious.
Future Implications for Syria and Beyond
The implications of the Aleppo offensive extend beyond Syria's borders, potentially affecting the strategic interests of various global players, including Israel and Iran. The conflict highlights the significance of state and non-state actors amid ongoing great power rivalries. Analysts suggest that the rebel forces' advances may disrupt the supply chains that facilitate Iranian support for Hezbollah in Lebanon, creating a ripple effect across the region. As the situation evolves, understanding the balance of power within Syria is critical for anticipating future geopolitical developments involving major international stakeholders.
Pete is joined again by John Fieldhouse, who discusses the recent events in Syria. John discusses who the participants are and who they might be a proxy for, as well as what we can learn while combat is going on.