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Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart
Despite Economic Green Shoots, Stocks Remain Vulnerable | Michael Kantrowitz
Feb 11, 2025
Michael Kantrowitz, Chief Investment Strategist at Piper Sandler, discusses his innovative HOPE framework, assessing economic health amid challenges like housing unaffordability and trade wars. He highlights complexities in the global economy and the impact of Federal Reserve policies on market volatility. Kantrowitz examines trends in housing, emphasizing regional disparities and the rising use of home equity loans. The conversation also navigates the relationship between macroeconomic indicators and stock performance, advocating for cautious investment strategies as 2025 approaches.
01:30:21
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Quick takeaways
- The HOPE framework highlights the interdependence of housing, orders, profits, and employment in assessing economic health and trends.
- Despite economic green shoots, the market faces potential volatility in 2025, warranting cautious investment strategies focusing on high-quality companies.
Deep dives
Cyclical Economic Outlook
The cyclical perspective suggests that housing markets will fluctuate in response to interest rate changes, with purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) likely to improve. This improvement in PMIs could contribute to sustained elevated long-term interest rates. Profit breadth across sectors is expected to increase alongside rising PMIs, indicating a potential uplift in broader economic health. Employment levels appear to have plateaued at current high rates, with the potential for variability in economic data impacting future market projections.
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