LessWrong (30+ Karma)

NATO is dangerously unaware of its military vulnerability

Nov 24, 2025
NATO is facing its biggest military vulnerability since 1949, largely due to the rise of drone warfare. Recent struggles against low-cost Houthi drones highlight serious gaps in air defense capabilities. The astonishing cost asymmetry of drones versus modern tanks is reshaping combat tactics. NATO's lack of drone combat experience and outdated doctrines leave it ill-prepared for modern conflicts. Additionally, geopolitical shifts and bureaucratic inertia hinder urgent adaptations, raising concerns about the alliance's future effectiveness.
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INSIGHT

Drone Warfare Rewrites Power Balance

  • NATO faces its gravest military disadvantage since 1949 due to the era of drone warfare.
  • Drones now cause most combat kills and invert traditional force economics.
ANECDOTE

Houthi Attacks Expose Naval Weakness

  • The US Navy struggled to defeat Houthi rebels using low-cost drones.
  • $1,000 FPV drones routinely destroy $7 million Abrams tanks in modern conflicts.
INSIGHT

Air Defence And Production Gaps

  • NATO's air-defence systems can't effectively counter drone swarms and penetrations occur.
  • NATO manufacturing lags massively behind Russian and Ukrainian drone production.
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