a16z Podcast Oren Cass & Noah Smith Debate the True Impact of Tariffs
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Aug 20, 2025 
Oren Cass, founder and chief economist of American Compass, and Noah Smith, commentator and author, engage in a spirited debate on the impact of tariffs on U.S. manufacturing. Cass advocates for tariffs to support American industry, while Smith raises concerns about potential drawbacks. They explore the intricate relationship between trade policies, manufacturing output, and family dynamics. Importantly, they discuss the balance between free trade with allies and competition from China, along with the necessity for strategic investment policies to revitalize domestic production.
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Markets Don’t Ensure Social Flourishing
- Oren Cass argues markets alone won't guarantee family, community, and industry outcomes and policy must fill gaps markets leave.
- He warns free trade with non-market economies can distort domestic free markets and harm long-term interests.
Manufacturing Advantages Are Policy-Made
- Cass emphasizes manufactured goods advantages stem from policy choices, not natural endowments.
- He argues massive goods-for-assets trade deficits can undermine long-run welfare.
Use Tariffs With Stable Policy And Complements
- Oren says tariffs can boost domestic manufacturing but require credible, stable policy to shift investment decisions.
- He emphasizes complementary measures like industrial policy and workforce development.
