Helen Thompson, a political analyst and commentator, joins the hosts to dissect the aftermath of the Tory triumph and its implications. They discuss the mistakes made by the Lib Dems, the challenges faced by Labour, and the potential for realignment in the North and Midlands. The SNP's role and the impact on Parliament are also examined. The chapter descriptions cover topics such as campaign strategies, the role of momentum in the Labour Party, implications for Northern Ireland, Nigel Farage's views on electoral reform, and challenges faced by the Liberal Democrats.
The Liberal Democrats' focus on stopping Brexit through the revoke article 50 position was seen as a fatal mistake, hindering their appeal to both Conservative and Labour voters.
The election resulted in a thumping majority for the Conservatives, with significant losses for Labour due to Jeremy Corbyn's leadership and their stance on Brexit.
The Brexit Party played a crucial role by taking votes primarily from Labour, while the SNP's strong performance in Scotland created challenges for the Labour Party.
Deep dives
Liberal Democrats' failure in the election
The Liberal Democrats' performance in the election was a failure as they lost seats and their vote share only increased moderately. The party's focus on stopping Brexit, particularly through the revoke article 50 position, was seen as a fatal mistake. Additionally, their unwillingness to compromise or consider a softer Brexit option like staying in the customs union hindered their appeal to both Conservative and Labour voters. The party's attempt to position themselves as the party of Remain also didn't resonate as expected, with fewer Tory Remainers than anticipated. Overall, the election result signaled a setback for the Liberal Democrats and highlighted strategic and messaging missteps they made.
Conservatives' success and Labour's decline
The election resulted in a thumping majority for the Conservatives, while Labour had a bad night. The Conservatives saw a massive turnaround, winning seats in areas where they were previously considered weak. On the other hand, Labour faced challenges due to its leader, Jeremy Corbyn, and its stance on Brexit. Discontent with Corbyn's leadership and Brexit-related concerns contributed to significant losses in various constituencies. The combination of these factors led to a significant decline in Labour's vote share and weakened its position. However, it is noted that Labour still had a substantial base of support in certain regions and among specific demographic groups.
The impact of the Brexit Party and the uncertain future of Scottish politics
The Brexit Party played a crucial role in the election by taking votes primarily from Labour, contributing to their losses in some constituencies. However, the absence of Brexit Party candidates in Conservative-held seats in the South of England prevented potential vote splits and benefited the Conservatives. As for Scotland, the Scottish National Party (SNP) performed well, creating challenges for the Labour Party, which is now the big loser in Scotland. The potential request for a second independence referendum by the SNP and the response from Boris Johnson's government could shape the future of Scottish politics. Scotland's constitutional question and the role of the House of Lords are areas where the Supreme Court may become involved, leading to potential legal and political implications.
Brexit's impact on the Conservative victory
The podcast discusses the scale of the Conservative victory and the impact of Brexit on the election results. Despite not reaching the 52% mandate of the Brexit referendum, the podcast highlights the significance of the 45% Brexit vote and how this influenced the election outcome. The role of tactical voting and the decision of the Brexit Party to stand aside in certain constituencies are also mentioned as factors that aided the Conservatives. The podcast reflects on the expected orderly Brexit on January 31st with the withdrawal implementation bill likely to pass smoothly in Parliament. However, concerns are raised about the consequences of such a large majority, including potential sidelining of the ERG and the risk of government overreach.
The consequences of Labour's defeat and Corbyn's leadership
The podcast analyzes the substantial defeat of the Labour Party and the factors contributing to their loss. It points out that Corbyn's leadership and the perception of him as lacking patriotism impacted voters' trust and the security questions surrounding his record were an issue in this election. The influence of the Remain stance and the treatment of the Brexit vote within the party are also discussed. The podcast brings attention to specific seat losses, highlighting Joe Swinson's defeat and the overturning of large Labour majorities. It concludes by considering the future direction of the Labour Party and the potential legacies of Corbyn's leadership.
We gather the morning after the Tory triumph the night before to discuss how they did it and what it means. From Swinson's hubris to Corbyn's comeuppance, from Scottish independence to constitutional challenges, from the start of Brexit to the end of the Brexit party, we try to cover it all in a bumper edition. With Helen Thompson, Chris Brooke, Chris Bickerton, Alison Young, Peter Sloman, Kenneth Armstrong, and some overnight reflections from other TP regulars. If you want to hear more, David and Helen are also on 538 discussing the election result.
Talking Points:
It was a good night for the Conservatives, a bad one for Labour, and cosmically bad for the Lib Dems.
The Lib Dems made a fatal mistake in backing Revoke and running a presidential style campaign.
They lured fewer Tory remainers than they had hoped.
Six months ago, the Conservatives were in existential crisis, and now they are like Thatcher in all her pomp.
How grim are things for Labour?
They lost seats they’ve held for decades. But they didn’t lose by that much. If the problems are Corbyn and Brexit, those won’t be there the next time around.
Realignment in the North and Midlands may not be permanent.
Labour is popular among young people and renters. There are more of them in cities, where Labour is already strong.
Who can bridge the urban-rural, traditional base-new base divide?
Now that there’s a clear majority, will Parliament go back to working as usual?
It’s not only the two parties: there’s also the SNP.
They will probably repeal the fixed term parliament act.
What about the Supreme Court? Could Scotland be the next thing they weigh in on?
What will happen to the Labour Party post-Corbyn?
It’s not easy to separate the Corbyn factor from the Brexit factor.
Corbyn’s record on security issues mattered—his support never recovered from the Salisbury poisoning. A lot of people don’t see him as a patriot.
