Glenn Diesen - Greater Eurasia Podcast Fyodor Lukyanov: Russia Won the War - Can Russia Win the Peace?
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Nov 24, 2025 Fyodor Lukyanov, a prominent Russian foreign policy expert and chairman of the Council on Foreign and Defence Policy, discusses Russia's war aims and prospects for peace in Ukraine. He argues that Russia's demands have remained consistent, focusing on security rather than territory. Critiquing vague Western peace proposals, he emphasizes the importance of Russian security needs. Lukyanov also highlights risks of failing to negotiate peace, the complexity of Ukrainian politics, and why Russia has avoided regime change, all while reflecting on historical roots of Ukraine's identity.
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Consistent Russian Security Demand
- Russia's core demands have remained consistent since the campaign began and focus on preventing Ukraine from posing a military threat to Russia.
- Territorial claims became central only after diplomatic efforts like the Istanbul process failed and the conflict escalated.
Security Guarantees Trump Territory
- Security arrangements and limits on Ukraine's alignment with NATO are the most crucial and hardest-to-meet conditions for Russia.
- Proposals that remove those security elements will be unacceptable to Moscow even if territorial points are negotiated.
Neutrality And Army Limits Are Deal-Breakers
- Moscow insists on Ukrainian neutrality and strict limits on force size to prevent Ukraine becoming a NATO proxy.
- Proposals that preserve large Ukrainian forces or unrestricted Western presence will be deal-breakers for Russia.