The Athletic FC Tactics Podcast Has Guardiola actually changed his philosophy?
Sep 25, 2025
Michael Cox, a tactics writer with deep insights into Guardiola-era football, joins Mark Carey, a tactics analyst who connects statistics to tactical changes, and Liam Tharme, a football tactics journalist. They dive into Pep Guardiola's defensive philosophy change, analyzing his cautious approach against Arsenal. The discussion ranges from whether Arsenal truly dominated, to City’s possession trends and their adaptation of players like Haaland. They also explore the broader tactical implications of Guardiola's evolving strategy and the psychological chess among top managers.
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Top-Level Chess Between Managers
- Guardiola and Arteta matchups have become cautious chess games that limit chances and spectacle.
- Both managers adjust defensively to each other's moves, producing low-xG, attritional ties.
Possession Drop Was Game-State Driven
- City's 32.8% possession at Arsenal was their lowest under Guardiola in 601 matches, driven by game state.
- Low possession often follows scoring early, not necessarily a permanent philosophical change.
Core Possession Ethos Persists
- Across Guardiola's PL tenure City remain the most possession-dominant side each season.
- Occasional low-possession games reflect outcomes and tactics, not wholesale abandonment of his principles.