Closing Bell Closing Bell 04/30/25
Apr 30, 2025
In this discussion, Stephanie Link, a CNBC contributor with Hightower, and Dan Greenhouse from Solis Alternative Asset Management, dive into the current state of the stock market amidst evolving economic conditions. They analyze the latest GDP figures revealing negative growth countered by positive consumer spending. The duo also explores the implications of upcoming earnings from tech giants like Meta and Microsoft, discussing regulatory scrutiny and the effects of rising interest rates on small businesses. Their insights provide a comprehensive view of navigating today's economic uncertainties.
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GDP Headline Misleadingly Negative
- The headline GDP number was negative but underlying data shows stronger business equipment investment and consumption.
- True domestic demand, excluding trade and inventory noise, was up 3%, indicating better-than-expected economic activity.
Trade Data Skews GDP Print
- The negative GDP print is distorted by abnormal trade data and tariff-related pull forwards.
- Excluding trade effects, real final sales to domestic purchasers grew about 3%, suggesting the economy wasn't actually shrinking.
Consumption Inflated by Tariff Pullforward
- Auto sales were front-loaded due to tariffs, inflating first quarter consumption figures.
- Worsening consumer sentiment signals risk that spending could weaken in upcoming quarters.