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TIP610: Mastermind Q1, 2024 w/ Tobias Carlisle and Hari Ramachandra

Feb 25, 2024

Tobias Carlisle, a value investor and author known for his insights on the Acquirer's Multiple, joins Hari Ramachandra, an investor and blogger, to delve into stock market strategies. They discuss why Carlisle is bullish on Mueller Industries, citing its appealing valuation, while Ramachandra analyzes the volatility surrounding Disney and its future prospects. Additionally, Stig Brodersen shares his reasons for investing in Spotify, unpacking the company's competitive landscape and challenges in the music streaming industry.

01:26:35

Episode guests

Hari Ramachandra

Tobias Carlisle

AI Summary

Highlights

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Episode notes

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Spotify dominates the music industry with high user engagement and market share despite competition from tech giants.

Concerns about Spotify's profitability due to negative net income and dependence on third-party technology platforms.

Spotify disrupts the podcasting market, surpassing Apple Podcasts and attracting top studios with superior technology and industry alliances.

Mueller Industries benefits from the housing boom and import challenges but faces sustainability issues amidst changing market dynamics.

Deep dives

Spotify's Growth Strategy and Market Competition

Spotify's growth strategy revolves around reaching a billion users and increasing premium subscriptions. Despite competition from big tech companies like Apple and Google, Spotify dominates with the largest market share. Its success in identifying and investing in talent early sets it apart. The company's ability to engage a younger demographic remains a key strength, showcasing high retention rates and engagement compared to competitors. However, concerns arise about its reliance on third-party technology platforms.

Focus on User Growth: Spotify Investment Thesis

00:48

Learning from Past Investment Mistakes

01:08

Overconfidence in Decision-Making

01:26

Intro

5min

Navigating Market Complexity: The Role of Stock Picking

2min

Evaluating Disney: Challenges and Opportunities

28min

Evaluating Spotify's Investment Potential

7min

Spotify's Competitive Edge in Music Streaming

13min

Evaluating Spotify's Financial Dynamics and Investment Strategies

11min

Financial Stability and Market Dynamics

14min

Understanding Cognitive Biases in Value Investing

8min

Engaging with Investment Insights and Future Plans

2min

In today's episode, Stig Brodersen speaks to Tobias Carlisle and Hari Ramachandra. Stig only owns five individual stocks, and in this episode, he outlines why he is still bullish on Spotify. Hari’s pick, Disney, has recently been extremely volatile, and Tobias pitches Mueller Industries, a value stock trading at an appealing valuation.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

00:00 - Intro

06:25 - Why Hari is bullish on Disney (Ticker: DIS)

12:09 - The bear case of Disney, including increasing competition, valuation, and debt levels

35:33 - Why Stig has invested in Spotify (Ticker: SPOT) as one of the five stocks he owns

48:44 - The bear case for Spotify, including the dependency on Alphabet

58:18 - Why Toby has invested in Mueller Industries (Ticker: MLI)

1:06:46 - The bear case for Mueller Industries, including the end of the building phase and competitive Chinese pressures

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.

BOOKS AND RESOURCES

Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members.
Listen to the Mastermind Discussion Q4 2023 – TIP586 | Youtube video.
Tune in to the Mastermind Discussion Q3 2023 – TIP576 | Youtube video.
Listen to the Mastermind Discussion Q2 2023 – TIP557 | Youtube video.
Tune in to the Mastermind Discussion Q1 2023 – TIP528 | Youtube video.
Listen to the Mastermind Discussion Q1 2022 – TIP418 | Youtube video.
Tune in to the Mastermind Discussion Q2 2022 – TIP450 | Youtube video.
Listen to the Mastermind Discussion Q3 2022 – TIP475 | Youtube video.
Tune in to the Mastermind Discussion Q4 2022 – TIP496 | Youtube video.
Tobias Carlisle's podcast, The Acquirer's Podcast.
Tobias Carlisle's ETF, ZIG.
Tobias Carlisle's ETF, Deep.
Tobias Carlisle's book, The Acquirer's Multiple – read reviews of this book.
Tobias Carlisle's Acquirer's Multiple stock screener: AcquirersMultiple.com.
Tweet directly to Tobias Carlisle.
Hari's Blog: BitsBusiness.com.
Tweet directly to Hari Ramachandra.
Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here.

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