Robert Kaplan on the Politics of the Past and Future of the Greater Middle East
Aug 29, 2023
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Robert Kaplan discusses the challenges of developing political institutions in the Greater Middle East, the distinctiveness of the region, its significance as a battleground for civilizations, the failure of the Arab Spring, Turkey's potential for democratization, politics and potential for improvement in Iraq, Ethiopia's inclusion in the Greater Middle East, and the role of the United States and China. The speaker also explains why Israel was excluded from their book on the Middle East.
The Middle East's historical and cultural complexities contribute to its underdeveloped political institutions despite its proximity to democratic Europe.
Progress in the Middle East is not linear, and events like the Arab Spring should not be seen as definitive indicators of the region's incapability for democracy.
Deep dives
The Middle East as a Riddle
The Middle East is the most autocratic region in the world, despite its close proximity to Europe, which is notably democratic. It has given birth to the world's oldest civilizations, yet its political institutions remain underdeveloped. The podcast explores the reasons behind the lack of democracy taking root in the Middle East and discusses the challenge of developing political institutions in the region.
The Complexity of the Middle East
The Middle East is a diverse region with different countries, cultures, and beliefs. It is a battleground for various ideas and power struggles due to its location between Europe, China, and India. The region's history of imperial rule, both Western and non-Western, has shaped its political landscape. The podcast highlights the diverse and distinct nature of each Middle Eastern country, emphasizing their unique challenges and aspirations.
The Paradox of Progress in the Middle East
The idea of progress in the Middle East is not linear, contrary to Western beliefs. Great events and societal changes in the region do not follow a predictable trajectory. The Arab Spring and other significant events cannot be seen as failures that prove the region is destined for autocracy. Progress in the Middle East may take unexpected paths and require non-linear approaches to achieve a more balanced and stable political order.
Potential for Change and Democracy
Despite the autocratic nature of many Middle Eastern countries, there is potential for change and the establishment of democracy. Iran, with its educated and sophisticated population, could undergo a gradual transformation towards a more democratic and secular society if the influence of the clerical regime decreases. Similarly, the potential for a post-clerical Iran and a shift towards democracy could have profound effects on the entire region, leading to greater stability and possibilities for democratic reforms.
Great developments by nature are not linear. Things just don't always continue as they have been. That's why this idea that the Arab Spring came, it went, it happened, it didn't work, therefore the Middle East will always remain an autocracy - that's linear thinking. Great events are great precisely because they're not linear.