How Asia Markets Are Reacting To Nvidia’s Blowout Earnings
Aug 25, 2023
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This podcast explores the market reactions in Asia to Nvidia's blowout earnings, highlighting the tepid response from AI-themed stocks. It discusses the correlation between the AI rally and Japan's equity market, the impact of China on global equities, weak price action in Atlantis, and the lack of interest in AI plays in Japan.
40:06
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Quick takeaways
The Asia market's response to Nvidia's earnings did not show a strong AI theme rally, indicating short-covering and profit-taking more than sustained long positions.
Monitoring the performance of the Nikkei and related AI stocks in Japan provides valuable insights into the broader AI-themed market reaction, including Nvidia's Q2 earnings.
Deep dives
Asia's Market Reaction to Nvidia's Quarterly Earnings and Guidance
The Asia Pacific trading session was the first region globally to react to Nvidia's latest quarterly earnings and guidance, which beat already optimistic consensus. The session provided insights into related stocks in the AI space, such as TSMC and SK Hynix in Taiwan and South Korea respectively, as well as Adventist in Japan. Although the market in Japan closed slightly higher, Adventist, known as Japan's Nvidia, had weak price action throughout the day, suggesting a lack of new long positions being established despite Nvidia's positive news. The broader indices in Japan closed in the green, but there was a significant net sell-off by foreigners in Japanese stocks, marking the largest since the rally began. Overall, the Asia market's response to Nvidia's earnings did not show a strong AI theme rally, indicating short-covering and profit-taking more than sustained long positions.
The Importance of Asia's Market Reaction
Asia's market reaction to post-US closing developments or earnings releases is crucial due to its position as the first global region to start each new trading day. Observing the Asia session provides useful insights into what to expect during subsequent US and European sessions. As after-hours trading in the US may not always accurately indicate the true market reaction, especially for thematic trades like AI, monitoring the full Japan cash equity trading session, including pivotal stocks like Adventist, can offer a clearer view of the AI-themed market reaction to Nvidia's earnings.
The Interplay Between Japan's Nikkei and Global AI Rallies
The rally in Japan's Nikkei index has shown a strong correlation with the global AI rally and the surge in Nvidia's stock. The upward momentum of AI-themed stocks, including Adventist, has been closely tied to the Nikkei index's breakout to three-decade highs. Additionally, the rally in the Nikkei and AI stocks contributed to the upside momentum of the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) index. Therefore, monitoring the performance of the Nikkei and related AI stocks in Japan provides valuable insights into the broader AI-themed market reaction, including Nvidia's Q2 earnings.
The Influence of Chinese Yuan on NDX Performance
The performance of NDX and AI stocks has been significantly impacted by the Chinese Yuan's trends. In particular, the downside momentum of NDX in August was primarily driven by the direction of the Yuan. The correlation between the Hang Seng index, the Nikkei index, and NDX highlights the influence of the Yuan on these markets. The recent stabilization of the Yuan and its reversal from further downside has provided relief to the Nikkei and NDX, resulting in a rebound for these indices. Monitoring the Yuan's movements is therefore crucial for understanding NDX's performance and the broader market dynamics.
Nvidia surprised the street with another major beat to guidance estimates for its Q2 earnings release - arguably the most widely watched corporate earnings report globally in 2023, with the stock +9% higher in after-hours trading.
However, in the following Asia trading session - which is the world's first region to start the full trading day, and thereby the first to react to the A.I. giant's strong quarter and optimistic guidance - the various market reactions were surprisingly tepid. Shares of TSMC, SK Hynix, Advantest and other "A.I. plays" were consistent in being fairly muted. The broader Nikkei225 and Nasdaq 100 index futures were also limited in both upside and in volume traded.
Weston Nakamura walks through these market cues out of Asia, which point to a potentially disappointing market response on NVDA shares themselves at US market open later, as well as other A.I. thematic shares globally.
Weston also provides the market background of what had helped drive the A.I. and NDX momentum from last quarter, as well as the August market sell-off for critical context in understanding NVDA and A.I. momentum plays.
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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