This episode explores key macroeconomic questions, including the Fed's dot plot and its potential use in normalizing policy, as well as the economic implications of such normalization. The discussion highlights how market expectations of easing policy can be stimulative, examines the risks of misjudging the neutral rate, and assesses the outlook for inflation and growth. The resilient nature of the U.S. economy, characterized by strong private-sector balance sheets and labor factors, is contrasted with potential medium-term slowdowns. Additionally, the podcast delves into the current GOLDILOCKS market regime, quantitative and positioning signals (including the KISS Portfolio), and current risk management strategies.
