The podcast discusses the rise of mobile shopping in the holiday season, the challenges faced by retailers, and the contrasting perspectives of founders and investors. It also explores topics like qualities sought after in companies and founders, total addressable market, and the importance of raising and deploying capital.
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Quick takeaways
Mobile shopping expected to dominate e-commerce during the holiday season.
Consumer debt slowdown and a tight job market contribute to the growth of buy-now-pay-later services.
Deep dives
Consumer spending concerns and the use of buy-now-pay-later services
In the podcast episode, the host discusses consumer spending concerns and the use of buy-now-pay-later services. While there is some worry about consumers getting overextended, the speaker points out that total credit card debt in the US has exceeded a trillion dollars. However, consumer debt has slowed down, possibly due to higher interest rates and the resumption of student loan payments. The speaker also highlights the tight job market in the US, which has led to disposable income for many consumers. A key insight is that as long as consumers continue to choose the no-interest option and make payments in four installments, the buy-now-pay-later category may see growth. However, there is concern about longer-term buy-now-pay-later deals with interest, likening them to credit card debt.
Mobile shopping trends and the impact on fintech companies
Another topic discussed in the podcast is the shift towards mobile shopping during the holiday season. The speaker mentions that according to Adobe's forecast, mobile shopping is expected to overtake desktop shopping for the first time this year. This trend is seen as a potential tailwind for companies like PayPal and Shopify. The speaker notes that these companies have been optimizing their platforms for mobile shopping for years and have incentives in place for direct purchases through their apps. The growth of mobile shopping is expected to have a significant jump this year, potentially reaching over 10% growth, with mobile accounting for 51% of total holiday spending. However, it is acknowledged that the mobile experience may have limitations in terms of prompting additional purchases and retailers will need to find ways to optimize the mobile interface for enticing consumers.
Challenges for shippers and the impact of returns
The podcast also touches on the challenges faced by shippers and the impact of returns in e-commerce. The speaker mentions that retailers have become more patient and are de-stocking their inventories, awaiting the right moment to replenish. This change in strategy is influenced by the increasing fragmentation in the shipping industry, with more third-party shippers and Amazon's extensive logistics network. The speaker suggests that competition among shippers may lead to more competitive pricing and discounts during the holiday season. However, there is a discrepancy between the Adobe forecast of 5% growth in overall holiday spending and the observed decrease in spending on goods that require shipping. This might be due to the rising popularity of experiential gifts that don't require shipping. Additionally, the speaker discusses Uber's announcement of their return service for packaging and speculates that it could be a step towards becoming a super app or an expansion of their Uber Freight business into reverse logistics.
Mobile shopping is expected to rule e-commerce this holiday season.
(00:13) Asit Sharma and Deidre Woollard discuss:
If consumer spending will remain strong over the holiday season.
The impact of the rise of mobile shopping.
Whether or not retailers can trust the supply chain.
(13:27) Founders and investors sit on opposite sides of the table and they don’t always agree. Venture capitalist Jerry Neumann and serial founder Liz Zalman look at both sides in their book Founder vs. Investor.