Making Sense with Sam Harris #447 — The Unraveling of American Power
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Dec 4, 2025 
In this thought-provoking conversation, geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan dives into the fallout of Trump's potential second term, questioning its implications for American power. He reflects on his misjudged 2024 predictions and the alarming damage to U.S. global influence. Zeihan highlights the risks of tariffs on manufacturing, deglobalization, and inflation. He also discusses the complexities of AI development in a decoupled world and unpacks the chaotic dynamics of U.S. policymaking, revealing the perilous results of current trends in geopolitics.
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Unprecedented Unraveling Of U.S. Power
- Peter Zeihan says the U.S. is experiencing an unraveling of national power on a scale not seen since the Soviet collapse.
- He attributes this to policy choices that are steering the country away from building genuine manufacturing and defense capacity.
Tariffs Drive High-Skill Jobs Offshore
- Flat tariffs push complex manufacturing steps offshore because intermediate crossing tariffs make products more expensive.
- The result is replacement of high-skilled jobs with lower value-added or automated production in the U.S.
Industrial Construction Has Stopped
- Industrial construction spending has been negative since tariff day, indicating a halt in new industrial projects.
- Zeihan warns this deindustrialization plus needed build-out creates a risk of simultaneous inflation and goods shortages.