Ivy Zelman, EVP and Co-Founder of Zelman & Associates, a Walker & Dunlop Company
Jan 23, 2025
auto_awesome
Ivy Zelman, EVP and Co-Founder of Zelman & Associates, shares her sharp insights on the housing market. She discusses the impact of tariffs on construction costs and the challenges homebuilders face, particularly in California's tightening market. Ivy highlights the 'lock-in effect' limiting inventory and dives into the complexities of affordability that buyers encounter. The conversation also touches on the potential privatization of Fannie and Freddie and the ripple effects of recent disasters on housing dynamics.
The devastating fires in California have heightened housing market pressures by creating a temporary spike in demand for rentals and increasing overall prices.
Existing homeowners' 'lock-in' effect due to low mortgage rates is expected to suppress home sales, putting further pressure on housing prices in the market.
Public home builders have gained a significant edge over private builders, producing over half of new homes and enhancing competition in the housing market.
Deep dives
Impact of California Fires on Housing Market
The recent devastating fires in California have raised significant concerns about their effects on the housing market and economy. The fires have resulted in a tragic loss of homes and communities, prompting discussions about the recovery process and its influence on housing inventory and prices. While there is an urgent push to rebuild, many believe that the recovery will be slow, particularly in areas like Pacific Palisades, where custom homes dominate. Additionally, the destruction has sparked a temporary spike in demand for rentals and housing, where displaced families are driving up prices significantly.
Current State of the Housing Market
The housing market is facing challenges from high mortgage rates and stretched affordability, leading to a more pessimistic forecast for overall growth. Analysts suggest that rates are expected to remain elevated for an extended period, which will likely suppress home sales and increase pressure on housing prices. Existing home sales are anticipated to remain low due to homeowners being 'locked-in' at lower mortgage rates, which discourages them from selling. New home sales are expected to experience modest growth as builders navigate constraints related to land acquisition and labor availability.
The Role of Public vs. Private Home Builders
There has been a notable shift in the market as public home builders have outpaced private builders in producing single-family homes. Currently, publicly traded builders account for over half of the new home market, a significant increase from previous years, as private builders struggle with market pressures. This consolidation gives public builders several advantages, including better access to capital, larger economies of scale, and more robust trade partnerships. Consequently, this dynamic is expected to create further challenges for private builders who must compete against the operational efficiencies of their larger counterparts.
Inflationary Pressures from Tariffs and Labor Market Dynamics
Tariffs imposed on imported materials such as lumber and concrete could lead to increased costs for builders, contributing to inflationary pressures in the housing market. Analysts indicated that the potential impact of tariffs could result in a significant price increase for homes, further complicating affordability issues for buyers. The labor market also poses challenges, as shifts in immigration policies could lead to a shortage of qualified workers in the construction industry, hindering growth. Builders are increasingly concerned about both the costs of materials and the availability of skilled labor, suggesting a cyclical challenge impacting supply.
Future Considerations for Housing Policy
The discussion around effective housing policies underscores the need for reforms in various areas, including impact fees and FHA limits. High impact fees, which can account for a substantial part of home prices, present a barrier to new construction and should be re-evaluated to promote development. Additionally, reworking FHA pricing limits to better reflect local market conditions could increase accessibility for potential homeowners. These targeted policy changes could invigorate the housing market by alleviating some of the financial burdens facing builders and buyers alike.
Willy was once again joined by one of the most respected voices in the housing industry, Walker & Dunlop’s Hall of Fame housing market analyst and executive vice president and co-founder of Zelman & Associates, Ivy Zelman.
They discussed Ivy’s outlook on the housing market, tariffs and the upward price impacts on the industry, the public vs. private homebuilding markets, the lock-in effect’s impact on existing inventory, home affordability issues she’s seeing, the privatization of Fannie and Freddie, the broader implications of the fires in LA, and much more.