The Walker Webcast Ivy Zelman, EVP and Co-Founder of Zelman & Associates, a Walker & Dunlop Company
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Jan 23, 2025 
Ivy Zelman, EVP and Co-Founder of Zelman & Associates, shares her sharp insights on the housing market. She discusses the impact of tariffs on construction costs and the challenges homebuilders face, particularly in California's tightening market. Ivy highlights the 'lock-in effect' limiting inventory and dives into the complexities of affordability that buyers encounter. The conversation also touches on the potential privatization of Fannie and Freddie and the ripple effects of recent disasters on housing dynamics.
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Housing Market Outlook
- The housing market faces challenges due to stretched affordability and higher interest rates.
- Home prices may still rise due to constrained supply, but significant growth is unlikely.
Impact of Mortgage Rate Increase
- A 70-basis point increase in single-family mortgage rates reflects forward yield curve pricing, impacting volume and price forecasts.
- This increase could lead to modest reductions in existing and new home sales, along with faster price deceleration.
Tariffs and Labor Concerns
- Tariffs could increase housing prices by 4-6%, but builders may not fully pass this on to consumers due to market pushback.
- Labor shortages, potentially worsened by deportations, are a bigger concern than tariffs, especially for smaller trade partners.