War on the Rocks Introducing "The Iran Reckoning with Afshon Ostovar"
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Jun 26, 2025 Afshon Ostovar, a prominent Iran scholar and author, delves into Iran's complex geopolitical landscape. He discusses the ongoing tensions between Iran, Israel, and the U.S., emphasizing the fragile ceasefire. Ostovar reflects on his Iranian heritage and how it informs his understanding of the region. He examines the shifting dynamics of Iran's influence since October 2022 and the implications of its military structure, particularly the IRGC. The conversation also tackles the looming threat of Iran's nuclear ambitions and its relationships with global powers like China and Russia.
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Ostovar's Journey to Iran Expertise
- Afshon Ostovar traveled extensively in the Middle East and Central Asia before focusing on Iran.
- His early experiences in Tajikistan sparked his interest in Islamic militancy and ideology.
Polarization in Iran Analysis
- Iran analysis is highly polarized due to diasporic and Israeli security perspectives.
- Emotional stakes in these communities fuel intense and personal disagreements.
Iran's Rise and Rapid Retrenchment
- Iran was at peak regional power a year ago but suffered dramatic setbacks post-October 7.
- The regime remains intact despite military and geopolitical retrenchment.
