The Roundup: Top Takeaways from Oaktree’s Quarterly Letters – December 2023 Edition
Dec 14, 2023
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Experts discuss the market outlook and the concept of 'normal' in terms of interest rates and inflation, analyzing the impact of reducing inflation rates and the possibility of a recession. They explore opportunities in alternative financing and the revival of the biotech M&A market. The volatility and opportunities in emerging market debt are also analyzed. Important insights from Oaktree Capital's quarterly letters are highlighted.
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Quick takeaways
The current environment of rising interest rates and unexpected geopolitical events make consistent sub-2% inflation unlikely.
Investing in C.L.O. Equity presents immediate cash and quarterly distributions, making it an attractive option compared to private equity or private debt.
Deep dives
Market Outlook and Interest Rates
The podcast discusses the current state of interest rates and inflation. It highlights how central banks have struggled to maintain 2% inflation in the past, but recent spikes have forced them to raise interest rates aggressively. The speaker suggests that even if inflation comes down to the target level, interest rates may not return to near zero. Factors like slowing globalization and rising union influence make consistent sub-2% inflation unlikely.
Predicting the Impact of a Potential Recession on Leveraged Credit Markets
The podcast episode considers how a potential recession in the U.S. might affect the leveraged credit markets. It suggests that while U.S. economic growth could slow, the impact on leveraged credit markets may be different from previous recessions. The episode emphasizes that default rates may not reach high levels due to several factors. These include companies that have already defaulted during the pandemic, proactive cost reduction programs, and a higher default rate in the leveraged loan market compared to the high-yield bond market.
C.L.O. Equity and the Benefits of Immediate Cash
The podcast explores the benefits of investing in C.L.O. (collateralized loan obligation) Equity. It highlights that C.L.O. Equity provides immediate cash and quarterly distributions, making it more valuable for investors compared to private equity or private debt. The episode also notes that while there may be risks associated with C.L.O. investments, a majority of leveraged loans in the market are performing well. It suggests that the current market conditions, where private equity faces challenges in exiting investments at good valuations, make C.L.O. Equity an attractive option.
In 2023, credit markets have experienced dramatic swings in investor sentiment, unexpected geopolitical events, and the second consecutive year of rising interest rates. In the current installment of The Roundup, Oaktree experts consider where opportunities and risks are emerging in various assets classes – including high yield bonds, CLOs, and European real estate – and co-chairman Howard Marks considers what “normal” may mean in this unsettled environment.
You can read The Roundup here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/default-document-library/december-2023-edition-roundup.pdf?sfvrsn=d67b5166_8).
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