Rich Pickings: What the lessons of 2023 can teach investors for the year ahead
Dec 21, 2023
auto_awesome
Portfolio managers discuss the divided market in 2023, the success of big tech stocks, the resilience of economies, and investment opportunities in Asia. They also explore the development of Japan's economy, concerns about the European market, and share their investment strategies for the year ahead.
The US economy displayed resilience in 2023, supported by excess savings and income growth, but potential cracks in the credit market could impact its resilience and increase the probability of a recession in 2024.
The widespread adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) is benefiting companies involved in the lower layers of the industry, but investor attention should also be focused on the development and commercialization of AI applications and the regulatory and legal challenges that may arise.
Deep dives
The year 2023 showed a divided landscape in the market with different sectors performing in opposite directions.
The year 2023 showcased a divided landscape in the market, with various sectors acting in different manners, sometimes even in opposite directions. For example, while global equities generated almost 20% for the year, global bonds only achieved low single-digit returns. This division was also evident in the Magnificent 7 or Big Tech stocks, which outperformed the rest of the stock market.
Interest rates did not have the expected negative impact on economies.
Contrary to expectations, the hike in interest rates did not lead to a disaster for economies. One reason for this is that companies and households had borrowed at low rates for a long period, reducing refinancing needs and making them less sensitive to higher interest rates. Additionally, rising interest rates in a stable and growing economy can indicate higher growth and pricing power for companies, benefiting equity markets. However, over-tightening with excessively high interest rates could still pose a risk.
The resilience of the US economy and the importance of the labor market.
The US economy displayed resilience in the face of predicted recessions due to tight monetary policies. The strong performance of the US consumer, supported by excess savings and income growth, contributed to this resilience. Looking ahead to 2024, investors should closely monitor the labor market and potential cracks in the credit market, as these factors could impact the economy's resilience and increase the probability of a recession.
The impact of AI and technology in investment and the global economy.
The widespread adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) is influencing various industries and markets. While the AI gold rush is primarily benefiting companies involved in the lower layers of the AI industry, such as hardware and cloud computing, the focus is shifting towards the development and commercialization of AI applications. The success of AI investments relies on the profitability of these applications and their ability to generate incremental profit or revenue. Additionally, investor attention should be paid to regulatory, ethical, and legal challenges arising from the rapid development of AI technology.
From artificial intelligence to US resilience, Richard Edgar discusses the big themes of 2023 with a panel of multi asset portfolio managers: Taosha Wang, Ian Samson and Talib Sheikh. What can the investment stories of the year teach us about the year ahead?
With additional contributions from Lee Sotos and Patrick Graham.