Former CIA operative John Sipher discusses US options for dealing with a potential invasion of Ukraine, while former top DHS intelligence official Brian Murphy deconstructs the Kremlin's disinformation campaign. Topics include Russian behavior, intelligence recruitment, cyber threats, manufactured tensions, Russian disinformation tactics, press responsibility, and changing strategies in disinformation campaigns.
Deterring Putin requires credible threats and not accommodating his aggressive actions.
Combining various sources, including open-source reporting, is essential to paint a comprehensive picture of Russian activities.
Deep dives
Russian Invasion Threat and Patterns of Behavior
The podcast episode discusses the ongoing threat of a possible Russian invasion in Ukraine. The host interviews John Seifer, a former senior CIA operations officer, about Russia's patterns of behavior and the need to deter Vladimir Putin. Seifer explains that Putin often creates crises to gain concessions or attention from the West, and previous attempts to accommodate him have been unsuccessful. Seifer advises that deterring Putin requires credible threats and emphasizes the importance of not accommodating his aggressive actions.
Challenges in gathering intelligence on Russia
The podcast delves into the challenges intelligence agencies face in gathering information on Russia. Seifer highlights the difficulty of collecting human intelligence in Moscow due to the extensive counterintelligence measures employed by the Russian government. He also discusses the fragile ecosystem of developing sources and the potential consequences of losing access to key informants. The podcast suggests that analysts must rely on a combination of various sources, including open-source reporting, to paint a more comprehensive picture of Russian activities.
Early warning and predicting Russian actions
The podcast explores the importance of early warning and predicting Russian actions. Seifer explains that military intelligence and agencies like CIA and NSA excel at monitoring Russian military infrastructure and communication. The podcast also discusses the role of open-source reporting, which has become more vibrant and extensive with the help of big data analysis. However, accurately predicting Putin's decision-making remains challenging due to his centralized power and unpredictable nature.
Potential strategies and consequences
The podcast examines potential strategies and consequences in dealing with Russia's actions. Seifer discusses the possibility of engaging in covert actions and intelligence operations to undermine Russian interests. He suggests that professionalizing Ukraine's military and intelligence services, along with supporting guerrilla warfare capabilities, can create additional challenges for Putin. The podcast also touches on the role of China and the potential impact of sanctions on Russia's actions. It concludes by emphasizing the need for a peaceful resolution to the crisis in Ukraine.
John Sipher, who once ran CIA operations against the Russians, talks about US options for dealing with an invasion of Ukraine, while Brian Murphy, a former top DHS intelligence official, deconstructs the Kremlin's disinformation campaign against us. With cohosts Jeff Stein and Jeanne Meserve.