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“Will Jesus Christ return in an election year?” by Eric Neyman
Mar 25, 2025
Eric Neyman, author and expert in prediction markets, dives into a fascinating discussion about the speculation on whether Jesus Christ will return in 2025, ignited by over $100,000 in bets on Polymarket. He unpacks why some are willing to wager significant sums, while others shy away from the risk. Neyman also delves into the complexities of prediction markets, comparing the volatility of Christ's return bets to historical trading trends, revealing surprising insights into human behavior and financial speculation.
07:48
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Quick takeaways
- The betting market on Jesus Christ's potential return in 2025 reveals traders' speculative motivations, influenced by market liquidity and investment strategies.
- Understanding the time value of money is crucial, as participants anticipate appreciating their bets as market interest grows in alignment with the election.
Deep dives
Understanding Market Motivations
Predictions around the likelihood of Jesus Christ’s return in 2025 have sparked significant interest, with traders participating in a market that reflects a 3% probability. Many traders have wagered substantial amounts, but the hesitance from others to invest in the 'no' side raises questions about the motivations behind the bets. Potential explanations include true believers who may actually accept the low probability or individuals betting based on incorrect market resolutions. However, the theory of 'time value of money' suggests that participants on the 'yes' side may be betting on future liquidity, anticipating that as other markets gain traction later in the year, they will be able to sell their shares at a better price.
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