LessWrong (Curated & Popular) “Will Jesus Christ return in an election year?” by Eric Neyman
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Mar 25, 2025 Eric Neyman, author and expert in prediction markets, dives into a fascinating discussion about the speculation on whether Jesus Christ will return in 2025, ignited by over $100,000 in bets on Polymarket. He unpacks why some are willing to wager significant sums, while others shy away from the risk. Neyman also delves into the complexities of prediction markets, comparing the volatility of Christ's return bets to historical trading trends, revealing surprising insights into human behavior and financial speculation.
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Polymarket's Jesus Bet
- Polymarket users are betting on Jesus Christ's return in 2025, with the market settling at a 3% probability.
- Betting against this would require a large sum of money and offer low returns, explaining the lack of counter-bets.
The Mystery of the 'Yes' Bets
- The real mystery is why anyone is betting on Jesus' return.
- Neyman explores hypotheses like true believers, incorrect resolution expectations, and memes.
Time Value of Money Theory
- Jesse, a Polymarket trader, suggests 'yes' bettors anticipate 'no' bettors will need their cash for other markets later in 2025.
- This creates an opportunity to sell 'yes' shares at a higher price.