10X Growth Strategies ποΈ E115: The New Rules of Venture Capital
ποΈ E115: Where the Smart Money Is Going β VC Investment Trends & the 2026 Outlook
In this episode of 10X Growth Strategies, host Preethy Padmanabhan sits down with Dawn DeBruyn Novarina to decode whatβs really happening inside the venture capital ecosystem β beyond headlines, hype, and surface-level optimism. Drawing from funding intelligence, market data, and decades inside Silicon Valley, Dawn explains how AI infrastructure and applied AI now capture nearly 75% of venture funding, why deal sizes are exploding even as the number of deals is shrinking, and how a small group of mega-funds is quietly reshaping the startup economy. From $100M+ AI rounds and the return of M&A, to the shadow world of secondaries, dry powder, and reverse-acqui-hires, this conversation reveals why liquidity β not innovation β is the real bottleneck in 2025, and why 2026 will likely be a year of slow recovery rather than a blockbuster IPO cycle.
π Download the Venture Market Report 2025 Q3 (Link Silicon Valley): https://drive.google.com/file/d/1uWePI7o6lgm6FPdIkTUYXvI3PSnHuvzc/view
A data-rich, brutally honest look at what it now takes to raise, deploy, and return capital in the age of applied AI. βΈ»
β±οΈ Chapters 00:00 β 00:45 β’ Intro & the new funding reality
00:45 β 02:30 β’ Why this venture market report exists
02:30 β 03:55 β’ What surprised Dawn in the 2025 funding data
03:55 β 05:30 β’ The funding rebound β why capital is flowing again
05:30 β 07:10 β’ AI infrastructure & applied AI β the era of mega-rounds
07:10 β 09:40 β’ Why most non-AI startups are struggling to raise
09:40 β 11:10 β’ Median deal sizes, shrinking deal volume & valuation divergence
11:10 β 12:45 β’ The return of exits β M&A over IPOs
12:45 β 15:10 β’ Reverse acqui-hires & why big tech avoids buying companies
15:10 β 17:40 β’ The hidden human cost of these deals
17:40 β 19:25 β’ IPOs in 2025 β why none were breakout successes
19:25 β 21:00 β’ Biotech vs AI β what public markets really want
21:00 β 23:30 β’ Why unicorn-class companies are staying private
23:30 β 25:30 β’ Secondaries explained β the hidden liquidity engine
25:30 β 27:40 β’ VC concentration β why a few firms now control most capital 27:40 β 29:15 β’ Fundraising in 2025 β abundance for some, starvation for most 29:15 β 33:20 β’ Dry powder, barbell economics & the future of early-stage 33:20 β 45:14 β’ Outro β Final audience insights, closing advice & what founders must do next