IBKR Podcasts Holiday Volatility: Gobble or Wobble?
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Nov 19, 2025 Scott Bauer, a trading educator and founder of Prosper Trading Academy, joins to delve into the complexities of market volatility during the holiday season. He discusses the recent market pullback driven by tech and soft retail earnings, while emphasizing the markets' overall resilience. Scott shares insights on Fed uncertainties and fluctuating bond yields, along with predictions for retail earnings from major players like Walmart. He highlights how these results could reveal consumer health ahead of the holidays, offering traders crucial insights.
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Tech And Retail Both Drag Markets
- Tech weakness is a major driver of the recent market pullback, especially around AI valuations.
- Retail and payments stocks also show weakness, amplifying overall negative sentiment.
Bonds Quiet But Fed Could Spark Moves
- Bond yields have calmed compared with recent volatility but remain sensitive to Fed rhetoric.
- The 10-year sits near last year's levels, yet Fed decisions could provoke outsized moves.
Fed Rhetoric Rapidly Shifts Cut Odds
- Market-implied probability of a December cut swung sharply from ~90% to about 50% in two weeks.
- Daily Fed rhetoric is driving rapid shifts in expectations and market positioning.