Jihad Yazigi, Editor-in-chief of The Syria Report, delves into the recent resurgence of Syria's civil war, sparked by a rebel group's seizure of Aleppo. He highlights the intriguing motivations behind the group's leader, drawing parallels to historical figures. The discussion unveils how this shift in power dynamics impacts civilians and the Assad regime. Yazigi also touches on the evolution of radical groups like HTS, now seeking governance, and the broader implications for U.S. foreign policy amidst the ongoing turmoil.
The recent seizure of Aleppo by rebel forces signifies a critical shift in Syria's civil war, undermining the Assad regime's historical control and invulnerability.
Under the leadership of Abu Muhammad al-Julani, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is evolving its identity from jihadist roots to focus on local governance and political compromise.
Deep dives
The Impact of Hafez al-Assad's Legacy
Hafez al-Assad's suppression of the Hama uprising in 1982 serves as a historical backdrop that highlights the ongoing brutality in Syria under his son, Bashar al-Assad. The initial violent crackdown on protesters in 2011 marked the beginning of a significant civil conflict that has lasted over a decade, fueled by heavy military responses to calls for political reform. The entrenched nature of the Assad regime, prioritizing its grip on power, has been met with determined resistance, culminating in recent battles where rebels have claimed victories. The resurgence of rebel forces in key cities reflects a profound shift in the conflict dynamics, shifting the perception of control within Syria.
Recent Rebel Advances and Its Implications
The recent advancements made by rebel factions, particularly in Aleppo, demonstrate a rapid shift in battlefield control, largely due to the government’s unexpected collapse amidst attacks. This swift takeover, occurring with minimal resistance, marks a significant turning point, challenging the long-held belief of Assad's invulnerability. Factors contributing to this development include weakening military morale and corruption within government ranks, which have left soldiers disillusioned and unmotivated to withstand the onslaught. As the regime regrouped to fortify its defenses, the implications of this rebel success reverberate throughout Syria, potentially reshaping the power landscape.
The Role and Ambitions of HTS leadership
The group responsible for these recent attacks, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has an intricate history rooted in various armed factions, including an association with Al-Qaeda. Under the leadership of Abu Muhammad al-Julani, HTS has sought to rebrand itself, distancing from its jihadist past while emphasizing a more localized, nationalist agenda. Despite being classified as a terrorist organization by the U.S., HTS aims to govern effectively in the areas it controls, capitalizing on the perception of better management compared to the Assad regime. Julani's strategy hinges on the need for political compromise in a diverse Syria, shaping his aspirations for broader control while responding to the regional geopolitical landscape.
A rebel group changed the course of Syria's long civil war when it seized Aleppo this past weekend. The Syria Report's Jihad Yazigi tells us what motivates the group's canny and mysterious leader.
This episode was produced by Peter Balonon Rosen and Miles Bryan, edited by Matt Collette, fact-checked by Anouck Dussaud, engineered by Patrick Boyd and Rob Byers, and hosted by Noel King.