Universities Futures Lab - Podcast series Grey rhinos
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Nov 28, 2024 
Gert-Jan Scheurwater, Director of Strategic Foresight at TU Delft, shares insights from his three-decade journey in academia. He explains how foresight can shape practical decision-making and why universities resemble coral reefs in their vulnerability. Gert-Jan contrasts grey rhinos—foreseeable risks like cybersecurity—with unpredictable black swans. He discusses the importance of building internal support for foresight initiatives and teases future tools for enhancing university foresight capabilities.
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Four Questions That Make Foresight Practical
- Foresight is the capacity to think systematically about the future to inform today's decisions.
- Ask: What's happening, what does it mean, what are our options, and what do we decide to do?
Universities Are Complex And Vulnerable
- Universities are crucial yet vulnerable institutions, comparable to complex coral reefs.
- Internal dynamics can create organizational myopia that blinds universities to external threats.
Focus On Grey Rhinos Not Only Black Swans
- Grey rhinos are likely, visible threats that organizations often ignore.
- Examples include cybersecurity breaches, research security issues, funding drops, geopolitical tensions, and pandemics.