Hub Podcasts Alberta's role in Carney's trillion-dollar growth promise
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Nov 6, 2025 Trevor Tombe, an economist from the University of Calgary, and Mark Parsons, Chief Economist at ATB Financial, delve into Mark Carney's ambitious plans for a trillion-dollar growth promise. They dissect the budget's productivity diagnosis, pointing out that while the sentiment is strong, the actual tools may fall short. The duo explores the implications of the trillion-dollar claims, questioning their validity. They emphasize Alberta's crucial role in fostering economic growth and energy exports, while calling for strategic engagement with federal policies.
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Diagnosis Right, Remedy Too Small
- The budget accurately diagnoses Canada's weak productivity and low business investment as the core growth problem.
- However, Trevor Tombe argues the budget's measures are mostly rhetorical and only marginally address the investment shortfall.
Super Deduction Lacks Permanence
- The 'productivity super deduction' is mainly a rebrand of accelerated expensing and is temporary.
- Tombe and Parsons say it may nudge investment but won't solve long-term productivity without permanence and broader tax reform.
Trillion-Dollar Claim Is Unpacked
- The budget claims it will 'enable $1 trillion' and 'catalyze $500 billion', but the numbers are opaque.
- Tombe notes key tax incentives may only raise GDP by ~0.2%, a tiny change versus the scale of the productivity gap.