Naval Science Is an Error-Correcting Mechanism
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Apr 30, 2021 Discover the intriguing shortcomings of induction in scientific reasoning and how they challenge our understanding of the future. The black swan example serves as a powerful metaphor for unpredictability, highlighting that past patterns don't guarantee future outcomes. Dive into the concept of science as a dynamic error-correcting mechanism, showcasing its ability to adapt and refine our knowledge over time.
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Induction vs. Scientific Knowledge
- Induction is the belief that future events can be predicted based on past observations.
- This is often mistaken as the foundation of scientific knowledge.
The Black Swan Example
- Europeans once believed all swans were white based on repeated observation.
- This was disproven by the discovery of black swans in Australia.
Sunrise Example
- Observing the sun rise daily doesn't guarantee it will always rise.
- Antarctica and the ISS offer counterexamples.