Harvard Data Science Review Podcast
Predicting (2021) Oscar Winners: How Crystal is the Statistical Ball?
Apr 15, 2021
Renowned Oscar predictors, Ty Burr and Ben Zauzmer, discuss the predictors of Oscar wins, the impact of Critics Awards and campaigning, influence of Oscar campaigns and spending ranges, the impact of streaming on Oscars campaigns, and the intense competition between nominated actresses. They emphasize the importance of combining data and intuition in expert predictions.
27:57
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Quick takeaways
- The Guild Awards and other industry awards are the biggest predictors of an Oscar win, while critics' awards or general awards like the Golden Globes have less influence.
- Film campaigns have a significant impact on Oscars prediction, with a clear connection between winning Oscars and increased box office revenue.
Deep dives
Predictors of an Oscar win
The biggest predictors of an Oscar win are the Guild Awards and other industry awards, rather than the critics' awards or general awards like the Golden Globes. The Screen Actors Guild awards are particularly influential for predicting the acting awards since a majority of Academy members are actors. However, the predictive power of different guild awards can vary over time. Changes in voting methods or group makeup can impact their accuracy. For example, the BAFTA's recent changes in nominee selection could affect their alignment with the Oscars in the future.
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