The Macro Trading Floor You Ready For Liberation Day?
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Mar 28, 2025 The hosts dive into the implications of the looming ''Liberation Day'' deadline for tariffs, sparking insightful discussions on market reactions. They dissect the Trump administration's economic strategies, including the potential depreciation of the dollar and its impact on global currencies. Risk management in carry trades takes center stage, revealing both the thrill and dangers investors face. From foreign investment flows to the complexities of bond yields, the conversation navigates through economic uncertainties and the interconnectedness of global markets.
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Tariff Announcement Impact
- Tariff announcements have three phases: pre-announcement positioning, announcement effect, and real economy effect.
- The upcoming tariff announcement is too complex for effective pre-positioning, making the real impact hard to predict.
The Bullwhip Effect
- Businesses are booming due to pre-tariff purchases, creating a bullwhip effect.
- This effect makes predicting the real economic impact even harder.
Trump's Strategy
- Trump's aim might be to rebalance global capital flows by encouraging other countries to increase spending and appreciate their currencies.
- This could achieve a weaker dollar without harming the US economy.