How China Views a Possible Harris Administration & Unpacking July's CCP Meeting: Chris Johnson
Jul 31, 2024
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Chris Johnson, a former CIA senior China analyst and a CSIS Senior Fellow, shares his insights on China's political landscape and economic challenges. He analyzes the outcomes from the recent CCP plenum, emphasizing Beijing's focus on state-led tech over market reforms. Johnson discusses China's view on the U.S. political scene, particularly regarding a potential Harris administration. He also highlights the country's struggles with overcapacity, demographic decline, and the impact of U.S. sanctions on its tech ambitions.
China's Communist Party prioritizes state-led technological advancements over market reforms, reflecting their cautious approach amid economic challenges.
Chinese perceptions of U.S. politics, particularly regarding a potential Harris administration, reveal their biases and reliance on domestic propaganda.
Deep dives
China's Perception of U.S. Politics
Chinese leaders are closely monitoring American political dynamics, particularly in light of potential changes in administration. They initially viewed the U.S. political landscape as uncertain, waiting to see how various candidates would perform ahead of elections. The debate performances influenced their calculations, prompting a serious reassessment of how they plan for potential outcomes, including a second Trump administration. They have a tendency to over-rely on their domestic propaganda, leading them to underestimate candidates like Vice President Harris based on misconceptions about American societal structures.
Understanding the Communist Party Plenum
The recent plenum of the Chinese Communist Party serves as a crucial assembly to map out medium to long-term strategies across various sectors, primarily the economy and national defense. This particular third plenum, traditionally focused on economic policy, involved lengthy deliberations among around 205 Central Committee members, culminating in a decision document that outlines priorities. Historically, past plenums, especially following significant political shifts, have introduced major reforms; however, expectations were tempered during this session with few substantial breakthroughs. The document primarily emphasized a continuation of existing policies rather than corrective measures for urgent economic issues, signaling a cautious approach toward potential crises.
Economic Challenges and Policy Outlook
China's economy currently faces significant turmoil, particularly in the property sector, impacting consumer confidence and overall economic performance. The recent plenum's document offered minimal discussion on housing, only addressing it in a small fraction of the lengthy resolution, which indicates a reluctance to tackle pressing short-term crises. Despite acknowledging the second-quarter GDP slowdown, the government remains committed to an ambitious GDP growth target, favoring incremental policy adjustments over immediate stimulus measures. Investors and analysts are left waiting for more concrete plans during Politburo and State Council meetings for clearer signals on economic recovery strategies.
Technological Ambitions Amidst Constraints
China aims for rapid advancements in critical technologies such as semiconductors, amidst significant challenges and external pressures, including strict U.S. sanctions. Historical efforts in technology planning have seen mixed results, raising doubts about the current administration's ability to achieve its ambitious tech goals set for 2029. The Chinese government seems resolute in pursuing self-sufficiency despite previous failures, viewing technological independence as essential to national security. Compounded by international cooperation challenges, these ambitions may risk extending the timeline and complicating China's quest to ascend as a technological superpower.
Michael talks with former CIA senior China analyst Chris Johnson, who breaks down the recent Chinese Communist Party's so-called third plenum, revealing President Xi Jinping's focus on state-led tech advances over market reforms. Chris, a CSIS Senior Fellow, shares his views on China's leading issues amidst a slowing economy. He also offers insights into Beijing's views on the chaotic U.S. political scene and how a possible President Kamala Harris could engage China.
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