Making Money How Worse Off Will You Be After the Budget?
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Dec 2, 2025 
In this discussion, Helen Miller, Director at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, shares her insights on the recent budget's implications. She analyzes the winners and losers, highlighting families benefiting from changes while others face tax hikes. Helen critiques the government's unclear growth narrative and the challenges facing public services. She also warns about the complexities of tax reforms and the impact of fiscal drag. Finally, she emphasizes the need for systemic reform and encourages citizens to engage in policy discussions.
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Forecast Surprise Reshaped The Budget
- The OBR's leaked forecast showed the Chancellor faced a smaller fiscal repair job than expected due to unexpected revenue rises and spending shifts.
- That surprise shaped the budget and explained why the public messaging felt gloomier than the underlying numbers warranted.
Headroom Bought Political Flexibility
- Rachel Reeves increased fiscal headroom from about £10bn to £22bn to buy flexibility against future shocks.
- That headroom is politically useful but still low historically and gives room before course correction is needed.
Tax Rises Mostly Fund Welfare And Buffer
- Most of the budget's tax rises either fund targeted welfare increases or are banked as extra fiscal buffer rather than boosting public services.
- Departmental day-to-day spending faces cuts later unless efficiency savings materialise.