Jian Lian on China's Industrial Policy and Global Strategy – #99

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Nov 20, 2025

Jian Lian, a policy analyst with deep expertise in China's political economy, discusses the nation's bold industrial policies and technological innovations. He contrasts China's industrial maximalism with Western liberal economic views and dives into the impact of US sanctions on Huawei's rise. Jian also highlights China's aggressive push in the semiconductor sector and the growth of domestic supply chains. With insights on 'hard tech' investments and the Made in China 2025 goals, he outlines China's ongoing strategies for global economic engagement and innovation.

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INSIGHT

Internet Debates Shaped Industrial Strategy

The Industrial Party arose online and merged with existing pro-manufacturing traditions inside government to push heavy industry and manufacturing priorities.
This hybrid bottom-up/top-down fusion shaped China's recent industrial-maximalist strategy.

ANECDOTE

How A Policy Paper Sparked China’s Chip Fund

Jian Lian recounts how a 10,000-character policy paper by an engineer convinced an MIIT-connected official to push semiconductor funding.
That advice helped create the state-backed semiconductor mega-fund and redirected capital into SMIC circa 2013–2014.

INSIGHT

Sanctions Became A Catalyst For Self-Reliance

U.S. sanctions on Huawei accelerated domestic innovation by forcing Chinese firms to source and develop local alternatives.
That coercion solved coordination problems and made domestic supply chains politically and economically viable.

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Jian Lian is an expert on China's political economy, industrial development, and technological development. He graduated from Peking University with a bachelor's and master's degree in economics. Starting out as an industry analyst at a Chinese investment bank, he participated in the "Made in China 2025" initiative as a Chinese venture capitalist, working for a state-owned fund. He is the author of "The Truth About Capital" 资本的真相 (2016), which contains major predictions about technology, economy, and society in China, most of which have since come true.

Jian and Steve discuss the origins of the industrial party movement (discussed in an earlier episode with Kyle Chan), which culminated in the "industrial maximalism" view of development adopted by the PRC government. They also discuss the development of supply chains in China, and the role that US sanctions had in accelerating the Chinese semiconductor industry.

Kyle Chan episode:

https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/kyle-chan-on-the-future-of-us-china-competition-94

Chinese industrial maximalism:

https://www.high-capacity.com/p/chinese-industrial-maximalism

(00:00) - Introduction
(00:49) - Jian Gaokao score was 23rd in all of Fujian = Econ at Beida, not Genomics!
(05:21) - China's Industrial Policy and Innovation
(24:19) - Domestic supply chain strategy; How Huawei became a national champion due to US sanctions
(34:13) - Venture Capital in China
(36:13) - Hard Tech Investments
(37:40) - Regulations of Tech Giants
(44:28) - Future of China Technological Development

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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU.Please send any questions or suggestions to manifold1podcast@gmail.com or Steve on X @hsu_steve.