The Rollup How Prediction Markets Have Become Crypto's Killer App
"Prediction markets are part of phase two of crypto product adoption" - Andrew Young, in today's podcast.
If youโve been following the evolution of DeFi, you know that prediction markets were one of the earliest use cases envisioned for blockchain. But only now, with more robust infrastructure and a larger pool of onchain users, are we beginning to see the full potential of this usecase unfold.
Today, we discussed the idea of sports betting as a much larger and more sustainable market compared to other prediction markets, like political betting. The regularity of betting events is a key part of prediction market success.
We also discussed the liquidity problem for prediction markets, especially for long-tail sports events and more niche markets. SX has tackled this head-on by building an Arbitrum Orbit appchain which has over 50 market makers, ensuring that thereโs always someone on the other side of the bet.
One of the more interesting parts of the discussion was the self-fulfilling prophecy of prediction markets and the danger of them, in a dystopian way.
Kept it light, not-so-technical and focused on the usecase of blockchains. Where are the apps? Prediction markets are here.
The Rollup
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๐๐๐ฆ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ฅ: ๐๐ฏ๐ท๐ฆ๐ด๐ต๐ช๐ฏ๐จ ๐ช๐ฏ ๐ค๐ณ๐บ๐ฑ๐ต๐ฐ๐ค๐ถ๐ณ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ค๐บ ๐ข๐ฏ๐ฅ ๐๐ฆ๐๐ช ๐ฑ๐ญ๐ข๐ต๐ง๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฎ๐ด ๐ค๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ด ๐ธ๐ช๐ต๐ฉ ๐ช๐ฏ๐ฉ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ต ๐ณ๐ช๐ด๐ฌ๐ด ๐ช๐ฏ๐ค๐ญ๐ถ๐ฅ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ ๐ต๐ฆ๐ค๐ฉ๐ฏ๐ช๐ค๐ข๐ญ ๐ณ๐ช๐ด๐ฌ, ๐ฉ๐ถ๐ฎ๐ข๐ฏ ๐ฆ๐ณ๐ณ๐ฐ๐ณ, ๐ฑ๐ญ๐ข๐ต๐ง๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฎ ๐ง๐ข๐ช๐ญ๐ถ๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ข๐ฏ๐ฅ ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฆ. ๐๐ต ๐ค๐ฆ๐ณ๐ต๐ข๐ช๐ฏ ๐ฑ๐ฐ๐ช๐ฏ๐ต๐ด ๐ต๐ฉ๐ณ๐ฐ๐ถ๐จ๐ฉ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ต ๐ต๐ฉ๐ช๐ด ๐ค๐ฉ๐ข๐ฏ๐ฏ๐ฆ๐ญ, ๐ธ๐ฆ ๐ฎ๐ข๐บ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ณ๐ฏ ๐ข ๐ค๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฎ๐ช๐ด๐ด๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐ฐ๐ณ ๐ง๐ฆ๐ฆ ๐ข๐ด ๐ข ๐ด๐ฑ๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ด๐ฐ๐ณ๐ด๐ฉ๐ช๐ฑ, ๐ช๐ง ๐ต๐ฉ๐ช๐ด ๐ช๐ด ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ค๐ข๐ด๐ฆ ๐ธ๐ฆ ๐ธ๐ช๐ญ๐ญ ๐ข๐ญ๐ธ๐ข๐บ๐ด ๐ฎ๐ข๐ฌ๐ฆ ๐ด๐ถ๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ช๐ต ๐ช๐ด ๐ค๐ญ๐ฆ๐ข๐ณ. ๐๐ฆ ๐ข๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ด๐ต๐ณ๐ช๐ค๐ต๐ญ๐บ ๐ข๐ฏ ๐ฆ๐ฅ๐ถ๐ค๐ข๐ต๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ข๐ญ ๐ค๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ต๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ต ๐ฑ๐ญ๐ข๐ต๐ง๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฎ, ๐ฏ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฉ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ ๐ธ๐ฆ ๐ฐ๐ง๐ง๐ฆ๐ณ ๐ช๐ด ๐ง๐ช๐ฏ๐ข๐ฏ๐ค๐ช๐ข๐ญ ๐ข๐ฅ๐ท๐ช๐ค๐ฆ. ๐๐ฆ ๐ข๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ฏ๐ฐ๐ต ๐ฑ๐ณ๐ฐ๐ง๐ฆ๐ด๐ด๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ข๐ญ๐ด ๐ฐ๐ณ ๐ญ๐ช๐ค๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ด๐ฆ๐ฅ ๐ข๐ฅ๐ท๐ช๐ด๐ฐ๐ณ๐ด.