Why Most Altcoins are Uninvestable Vaporware w/ thiccy
Oct 17, 2023
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Thiccy, a crypto trader from Scimitar Capital, talks about the BTC ETF fake news pump, his road to full-time crypto, systematic vs discretionary trading, why crypto is an inefficient market, work/life balance, what makes a successful trader, why Thiccy is bearish alts, how we value crypto tokens, defining Thiccy's edge & EV, scaling into trades, thoughts on TA, and advice to make it in crypto.
Understanding market participants' behaviors is crucial for gaining an edge in cryptocurrency trading.
Constant adjustments and self-awareness are vital in navigating the volatile cryptocurrency market.
Consider both technical analysis and the behavior of other market participants when making trading decisions.
Deep dives
Tikey's Background and Trading Style
Tikey is a trader who entered the cryptocurrency market in 2022, starting to trade professionally in February 2023. He emphasizes the importance of understanding market participants and their behaviors, both behaviorally and structurally, to gain an edge. Tikey focuses on thinking through the path of supply and demand dynamics and adjusting his positions accordingly. He explains the importance of self-awareness and the ability to iterate on oneself as a key trait for successful trading. Tikey also recognizes the significance of technical analysis and its influence on market participants in the crypto industry.
Views on the Market and Long/Short Positioning
Tikey currently has a delta-neutral view on the market, being long major cryptocurrencies and short altcoins. However, he acknowledges that positions may continuously change and emphasizes the need for constant adjustments. Tikey highlights the value of understanding why someone holds a certain view rather than blindly copying their trades. He mentions the importance of self-awareness, separating results from decision-making processes, and not relying solely on technical analysis for trading decisions.
Views on Altcoins and Market Sectors
Tikey is generally bearish on all sectors of the cryptocurrency market. He expresses skepticism towards layer-one projects, DeFi, gaming, and other sectors, deeming them overvalued or lacking legal confidence. However, he does believe in the core value propositions of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Tikey notes some potential opportunities but remains cautious due to regulatory uncertainties, hack risks, and market dynamics around altcoins.
Approach to Shorting and Risk Management
Tikey employs various approaches to shorting and emphasizes the importance of risk management. He explains the concentration of expected value (EV) at the entry point when averaging down on short positions. Tikey also discusses the significance of entry methods, such as technical analysis or behavioral factors, in reinforcing conviction and decision-making. Additionally, he advises considering the behavior of other market participants and the potential effects of concentrated selling or buying pressure before making shorting decisions.
Advice for Aspiring Traders
Tikey advises aspiring traders not to quit their jobs to trade full-time and emphasizes the value of learning from experienced traders. He recommends finding mentors or individuals who can provide guidance, honing one's understanding of market participants, and leveraging the collective insights of a network. Tikey also urges traders to focus on self-improvement and self-awareness, separate their decision-making from short-term results, and approach trading with a flexible mindset.
Episode 2 of Crypto Market Wizards, a new interview series focused on crypto traders in the trenches of the liquid markets (not VCs). Today we have Thiccy from Scimitar Capital talking about the state of the market and how he makes money from the markets.
Follow Thiccy: https://twitter.com/thiccy____
0:00 Intro to Thiccy
1:50 BTC ETF Fake News Pump
9:00 Thiccy's Road to Full-Time Crypto
12:45 Systematic vs Discretionary Trading
15:56 Why Crypto is such an Inefficient Market
22:10 Work/Life Balance & Managing Emotions
29:00 What Makes a Successful Trader
31:14 Why Thiccy is Bearish Alts
36:30 How do we Value Crypto Tokens?
42:34 Defining Thiccy's Edge & EV
46:24 Scaling into Trades & Thoughts on TA
49:25 Advice to Make it in Crypto
55:00 Closing Thoughts
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