Will Unemployment Force A Rate Cut ?

Unemployment reached 7.1%, with 66,000 jobs lost in August, particularly in tariff-exposed sectors like manufacturing, transportation, and technical services; youth unemployment is especially high at 14.5%.

Housing affordability remains challenging despite falling prices (GTA average home price down to $1,022,143 from $1,193,771 in 2022), with the housing cost-to-income ratio deteriorating to 7:1 nationally and 9:1 in Ontario.

Markets strongly anticipate a Bank of Canada rate cut on September 17th (92% probability), with the policy rate currently at 2.75%, down from 5% in June 2024.