Sam the Sham over the Rolling Stones? The Knack over Donna Summer? Wilson Phillips over Mariah Carey? Glass Animals over Harry Styles?

On Billboard’s year-end Hot 100, upsets are quite common. Songs that seemed to dominate the chart all year are defeated by stealthily ubiquitous earworms. Sometimes the obvious song takes the prize: “Hey Jude,” “Every Breath You Take” or “I Will Always Love You.” And then sometimes it’s a one-hit wonder: Domencio Mudugno, Daniel Powter, Gotye, Glass Animals—all won the year-end Hot 100 prize.

Join Chris Molanphy as he explains the secrets behind having the hit of the year—and why it doesn’t always go to a superstar.

Podcast production by Kevin Bendis.

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