Episode 9:

On today's show I speak with Aahan, founder of Prometheus Research, a research service with the goal of democratizing finance making institutional-quality insights and research available to the public.

1. Background of Macro research

Understanding underlying mechanisms over analyzing data
Monetary contracts and how we got here
Money grows faster than underlying labor and capital
Monetary policy - tighter is needed to tame inflation
Interest rates need to be higher than CPI to lower future inflation

2. Monetary and cost push inflation

Money infused into personal incomes and economy with production and labor
Productivity down - less output/dollar
Rise in costs of capital, production, labor
Margins compressed with dilution of value

3. PMI, ISM and Manufacturing Reports

Manufacturing forward indicator for earnings
Real demand coming down
Consumption declined
Excess production and inventory build

4. Tightening liquidity

Returns on assets relative to cash is negative
Pressures on production and employment increasing
Lower output and less need for employment
Stagflationary Nominal Growth to Stagflation
Real incomes and spending weaker so business sales also weaker

5. GDP Nowcast

Weakening in real growth relative to previous year
Real GDP could go negative near term

6. Returns not a feature of asset class but a feature of sample selection

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Macro, Alpha & Risk | Aahan Menon Ep.9