Beatrice Heuser on Flawed Strategy and Strategic Forecasting

In 'Nexus', Yuval Noah Harari delves into the long-term history of information networks, examining how the flow of information has made and unmade our world. The book takes readers from the Stone Age through significant historical events like the canonization of the Bible, early modern witch-hunts, Stalinism, Nazism, and the resurgence of populism today. Harari discusses the complex relationship between information, truth, bureaucracy, mythology, wisdom, and power, and addresses the urgent choices humanity faces as non-human intelligence threatens our existence. He argues that information networks are the primary driving force shaping human societies and that AI represents a new and critical phase in this history.

In 'Skin in the Game', Nassim Nicholas Taleb argues that having personal stakes in the outcomes of decisions is crucial for fairness, commercial efficiency, and risk management. The book highlights how individuals and systems that are insulated from the consequences of their decisions often make poor choices. Taleb draws on historical and contemporary examples to illustrate the importance of symmetry in risk and reward, and how this principle affects various domains, including politics, economics, and personal life. The book emphasizes that true learning and improvement come from experiencing the consequences of one's actions, a concept encapsulated in the Greek idea of 'pathemata mathemata' or 'guide your learning through pain'.