Economists Jonathan Pingle, Steve Englander, and Michael Feroli discuss the Fed's rate cuts, inflation, and the possibility of a US recession post Jay Powell's presser. They analyze the challenges of tight monetary policy, inflation management, and the economic outlook. The conversation also touches on unilateral intervention in FX markets, financial planning simplicity, job market struggles, and experiences at pretentious events and Michelin-rated restaurants.
Fed's concern over being overly tight in monetary policy risks economic stability.
Consideration of societal impacts on low-income segments is crucial in Fed's policy decisions.
Deep dives
Federal Reserve Policy and Economic Outlook
The podcast episode discusses the recent Federal Reserve chair's press conference and its impact on the economic outlook. It mentions the concerns regarding the Fed potentially being overly tight in its monetary policy and the risks associated with this approach. The episode also highlights the importance of considering the societal impact of Fed policies on various segments of the economy, such as low-income consumers and households.
Interest Rates and GDP Forecast
The discussion shifts to the prediction of GDP growth, with an outlook suggesting a slowdown to around 1.5% for the current year and the following years. While inflation concerns are raised, the podcast does not lean towards a stagflation scenario but anticipates a gradual cooling of inflation. Additionally, the complexity of aggregating economic data in the current economic landscape is emphasized.
Car Ownership Costs and Restaurant Reservations Market
The episode touches upon the rising costs of car ownership, citing increases in new vehicle transaction prices, repair and maintenance costs, and insurance expenses. It comments on the advanced technology integrated into modern cars leading to higher expenses. Furthermore, the secondary market for restaurant reservations in upscale establishments, where reservations are sold for profit, is highlighted as a trend, drawing attention to the exclusivity and pretentiousness in the dining experience at certain high-end restaurants.
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul SweeneyMay 2nd, 2024 Featuring:
Jonathan Pingle, UBS Securities Chief Economist, talks about the Fed, Jay Powell, and where we stand with rate cuts after Powell's presser yesterday
Steve Englander, Global head of G10 FX Research and of North America Strategy for Standard Chartered Bank, on the Fed reducing its hiking tail risk
Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist at JPMorgan, reacts to Jay Powell and discusses the outlook for a US recession
Bloomberg's John Tucker with his Newspaper Headlines