Milk Road Macro Why 2026 Will Be a Volatile, Politically Driven Market w/ Mel Mattison
Dec 30, 2025
In this discussion, Mel Mattison, a seasoned fintech executive and investor, delves into the complexities of the financial system, highlighting issues from shadow QE to collateral crises tied to tokenization. He predicts that 2026 will usher in a volatile stock picker’s market, driven by political factors. Mel also analyses the implications of recent Fed policies, the impact of the housing-focused 'big beautiful bill,' and shares insights on Bitcoin’s recovery and the future of AI-driven investments, particularly in emerging markets like Brazil.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Fed Moving Toward QE-Like Liquidity
- The Fed's T-bill purchases signal a shift toward more dovish policy and liquidity support.
- Mel Mattison warns this likely leads to QE-like actions and rate cuts toward ~3% in 2026.
Treasury Can Substitute For Fed Buying
- Treasury buybacks and bill issuance can mimic Fed purchases to reduce long-term supply.
- Mattison expects such fiscal plumbing to persist into 2027 due to rising interest expense pressures.
Fiscal Strain Makes Lower Rates Political
- High sovereign interest expense and 120% debt-to-GDP pressure policy toward lower rates.
- Mattison sees housing policy as the political lever to stimulate consumer demand pre-midterms.