British American Tobacco and The Past, Present, and Future of the Nicotine Industry With Devin LaSarre
Sep 9, 2022
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Devin LaSarre, an expert on British American Tobacco and the nicotine industry, joins Brett and Ryan to discuss the company's business model, valuation, and the impact of declining smoking rates. They also explore the potential of next-gen tobacco products and the risks associated with investing in British American Tobacco.
The potential growth of the tobacco industry lies in non-combustible products like vaping and modern oral products, which are seen as reduced-risk alternatives.
British-American Tobacco (BTI) has the opportunity to leverage its diverse product portfolio and global presence to capitalize on the demand for reduced-risk alternatives, despite potential risks such as regulation, competition, and ESG concerns.
Deep dives
Overview of the Podcast
In this podcast episode, Devin LaSar provides an overview of the tobacco industry and specifically focuses on British-American Tobacco (BTI). He discusses the history of tobacco, from its origins to its global proliferation. LaSar highlights the inelastic demand and pricing power of cigarettes, as well as the potential for future growth in the industry. He also delves into the non-combustible category, including vaping, heated tobacco products, and modern oral products. LaSar emphasizes the potential of these products as reduced-risk alternatives and the role they may play in the future of the tobacco industry. He analyzes BTI's current geographical distribution, revenue growth, and profitability in these new categories, as well as their valuation and risks associated with future regulation, competition, global dynamics, and ESG concerns.
BTI's Diversified Operations and Market Share
British-American Tobacco (BTI) operates globally and has significant market share in various regions, particularly in the US and Europe. The company focuses on combustible products, such as cigarettes, and non-combustibles, which include traditional oral products, vaping, heated tobacco, and modern oral products. While cigarettes remain the primary source of revenue and profits for BTI, the newer non-combustible products are experiencing substantial growth. Devin LaSar highlights the success of BTI's modern oral product, Vellow, in the Scandinavian countries, where it has gained market share and competes with Swedish Match. However, he also mentions the challenges faced by Vellow's US version, which has struggled to gain traction due to product quality and branding issues. LaSar indicates the potential for BTI to leverage its diverse product portfolio and geographical reach to capitalize on the demand for reduced-risk alternatives.
Valuation and Investment Potential
BTI's valuation is relatively low, with a compressed multiple and attractive metrics, such as double-digit free cash flow yield and attractive dividend yield. The company's focus on deleveraging and shareholder returns, including share buybacks, adds to its investment appeal. Devin LaSar notes that the industry's minimal reinvestment needs and BTI's strong profitability contribute to potential long-term returns and capital allocation decisions. However, he acknowledges the risks associated with future regulation, such as changes in taxation, advertising restrictions, and potential product bans. Currency dynamics, global supply chain challenges, and ESG concerns also pose risks to BTI's performance and shareholder returns. Despite these risks, LaSar believes that BTI's current valuation and potential for growth in non-combustible products make it an interesting investment opportunity.
Risks and Uncertainties
Several risks need to be considered when investing in BTI. Regulatory changes, especially regarding tobacco harm reduction frameworks and taxation policies, could impact the industry's future business environment. Increased competition, particularly for non-combustible products, may also pose a risk if brands fail to establish strong consumer affinity. Global dynamics, such as globalization concerns, currency fluctuations, and supply chain disruptions, could affect BTI's operations and financial performance. Additionally, the ESG movement and negative public perception of the tobacco industry could lead to further compression of BTI's valuation and potential limitations on its growth prospects. It is essential to monitor these risks while considering an investment in BTI.
British American Tobacco provides tobacco and nicotine products to consumers worldwide. The company operates under different brands including popular names such as Lucky Strike, Camel, Natural American Spirit, and Modern Oral brands. Listen as Brett and Ryan ask Devin questions about the company, its business model, and valuation. Enjoy the show!
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Disclosure: Chit Chat Money hosts and guests are not financial advisors, and nothing they say on this show is formal advice or a recommendation. Brett Schafer and Ryan Henderson are general partners and portfolio managers at Arch Capital. Arch Capital and its partners may hold securities discussed on this show.
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