Barak Ravid, Ebtesam El-Ketbi & Abdulaziz Sager: FROM HOPE TO UNCERTAINTY - FIVE YEARS AFTER THE SIGNING OF THE ABRAHAM ACCORDS BETWEEN ISRAEL AND FOUR ARAB STATES

Gudrun Harrer in conversation with Barak Ravid, Ebtesam El-Ketbi, Abdulaziz Sager

FROM HOPE TO UNCERTAINTY - FIVE YEARS AFTER THE SIGNING OF THE ABRAHAM ACCORDS BETWEEN ISRAEL AND FOUR ARAB STATES

Five years ago, in September 2020, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain signed the Abraham Accords, the agreement that established normalization of diplomatic relations with Israel. They were later joined by Morocco and Sudan (the latter never implementing the agreement). The cultural, economic and security cooperation between the Abraham Accord signatories progressed, and in 2023 the US administration of President Joe Biden increased efforts to complete the project of his predecessor Donald Trump by bringing Saudi Arabia into the pact.

The 7th October 2023 brutal Hamas attack on Israel and the subsequent massive Israeli military offensive against the Gaza Strip with its heavy toll on innocent Palestinian civilians completely changed the political environment of Israeli Arab cooperation. The Abraham Accords have proved resilient but are in difficult waters, even more so since Israel recently, on September 9th, attacked a target in Qatar – which is not a member of Abraham Accords, but, together with the US and Egypt, a mediator between Hamas und Israel. The Unites Arab Emirates drew a “red line” over a possible annexation of the West Bank by Israel. The escalation not only questions Arab Israeli relations and, in concrete terms, the future of the Abraham Accords. Also the foundation of trust between the United States and its reliable Arab partners on the Gulf seemed to be shaken.

A panel of distinguished experts from the region will address the question if the Abraham Accords are in acute danger or already a stable part of a new irreversible security architecture in the Middle East and North Africa. If this is the case, can they be not only maintained but expanded, geographically and thematically? What are the requirements for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to join? Is Israel – which seems to have switched from policies of national security to the goal of regional dominance – still interested in the development of the Accords? Is the European Union, as it seems, really confined to a role of passive onlooker although directly affected by all events in the MENA region?

Barak Ravid, Israeli journalist who serves as a political analyst for CNN and reporter for Axios and Channel 12 News (online)

Ebtesam El-Ketbi, political scientist who founded and presides over The Emirates Policy Center think tank

Abdulaziz Sager, Founder and Chair of the Gulf Research Center, a global think tank based in Saudi Arabia, expert on Gulf politics and strategic issues, author and editor of numerous publications, frequent contributor to major international media channels such as Al Arabiya, the BBC, CNN, and France 24

Gudrun Harrer, Senior Editor, Der Standard; Lecturer in Modern History and Politics of the Middle East at the University of Vienna and the Diplomatic Academy of Vienna