Private Capital Call EP9: Bilal Hafeez on policy volatility
May 5, 2025
Bilal Hafeez, Founder and CEO of Macro Hive and a top market strategist, shares his insights on today's unpredictable economic landscape. He discusses how geopolitical tensions and tariff policies are reshaping the market dynamics and the transition to a personality-driven global trade system. Bilal delves into inflation and recession risks through 2025 and the Fed's interest rate strategies. He also offers valuable advice for investors on portfolio positioning and highlights the resilience of private credit and alternative investments amid economic uncertainties.
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Tariffs Disrupt Global Trade Rules
- The U.S. tariffs implemented in 2025 represent the largest trade barrier scale since the 1930s, disrupting decades of global trade rules.
- This unilateral approach replaces stable multilateral agreements with uncertain, personality-driven deals under President Trump.
Uncertainty Kills Markets
- Market uncertainty about tariffs harms markets more than the tariffs themselves.
- Personality-driven, bilateral trade deals with President Trump cause ongoing unpredictability rather than stable, rules-based agreements.
High Probability of Global Recession
- Bilal Hafeez estimates a 70-80% chance of recession in 2025 due to the global tariff shock and weakening consumer and business confidence.
- The recession will likely be global, affecting multiple regions beyond the U.S.