Shawn Tuteja, who oversees ETF and custom baskets volatility trading at Goldman Sachs, joins Chris Hussey to discuss the impact of the recent U.S. election on market dynamics. Tuteja delves into how election outcomes have historically influenced the S&P 500 and explores emerging opportunities in regional banks and deregulated industries. He also highlights the surprising strength of U.S. tech stocks and the potential for small businesses to thrive under a favorable government approach. Is the Trump trade just starting? Tune in for insights!
The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have created a 'Goldilocks' environment, boosting investor confidence and supporting equity markets.
Post-election, sectors linked to deregulation and companies serving small businesses present promising investment opportunities amid a favorable regulatory backdrop.
Deep dives
Market Reaction to Federal Reserve Cuts
The recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut has instilled confidence in equity markets, leading investors to perceive a protective stance from the Fed. After the Fed's decision not to cut rates in July, the market experienced a sell-off, but subsequent signals of support from the Fed, including a more significant cut, reassured investors. This perception has resulted in a bullish sentiment, with the market pricing in expectations for further rate cuts if economic conditions worsen. As growth and employment numbers remain stable, the current environment is characterized as a 'Goldilocks' scenario, where the Fed is supporting equities amidst ongoing economic expansion.
Post-Election Market Trends
Following the recent U.S. election, the stock market experienced a notable rally, with the S&P 500 gaining 4% in response to the election results. Investors were able to allocate funds into the market due to prior de-risking measures, causing a rebound towards previous highs. The reduction in market volatility, as evidenced by a decrease in the VIX index, has drawn more investors back into equities. Additionally, strong seasonal trends for corporate buybacks in November and December have created supportive conditions for the market, ensuring a favorable backdrop for equity investments moving forward.
Investment Themes and Opportunities
The recent election has highlighted several investment themes, notably the recovery of regional banks and sectors linked to deregulation, which saw significant gains post-election. Unlike previous cycles, big-cap technology stocks have shown resilience, challenging fears of a downturn in that sector. The emphasis on investing in companies serving small businesses is emerging as a promising strategy, as anticipated pro-business policies could boost growth in that area. This approach focuses on public companies that cater to small businesses, indicating potential for higher returns in a favorable regulatory environment.
US equities rose sharply on the US election results. Are further gains ahead, and where could the biggest opportunities be now? Shawn Tuteja, who oversees ETF and custom baskets volatility trading in Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets, discusses with Chris Hussey.