Guests Tony DeSpirito, Earl Davis, and Jonathan Pingle discuss stock picking opportunities, potential rise in US 10-yr yields, reactions to strong ADP labor data, and Fed rate decision preview. Topics include earnings estimates, treasury market impact, and economic outlook post Fed decision
Stock pickers have an opportunity with normalized earnings estimates across mega-cap and other stocks.
US 10-yr yields may retest 5% and Fed decisions could impact the treasury market.
Deep dives
Impacts of Treasury and Fiscal Policy on 2023 Growth
The podcast discusses the significant impacts of fiscal policy and Treasury actions on the 2023 economic growth projections. It highlights how investments in chip plant manufacturing and other related sectors have influenced GDP growth, with government spending and investment contributing to a third of this growth. The discussion emphasizes the potential effects of deficit widening and the role of interest rates in shaping economic trends. There are insights into the sustainability of these impacts leading into 2024, with considerations about distribution of funds.
Tax Policy Impact on Future Fiscal Direction
The episode explores the potential implications of tax policies on future fiscal directions, focusing on the expiration of individual tax cuts in 2025. The conversation delves into the contrasting perspectives of Democrats and Republicans regarding tax increases and pay-for proposals. Details on the significant fiscal impact of these decisions over the following decade are highlighted, presenting a scenario where tax policies may undergo substantial changes based on various political outcomes.
Market Outlook and Active Management Opportunities
The podcast provides insights into the market outlook, emphasizing the opportunities for active management in a dynamic economic landscape. Discussions revolve around stock market volatility and the roles of skilled active managers in navigating market fluctuations. The concept of a rolling recession recovery highlights sectoral shifts and the potential for skilled stock pickers to capitalize on market dispersion. Additionally, the episode touches on consumer spending trends, productivity growth, and population dynamics as key factors shaping the current economic environment.
-Tony DeSpirito, BlackRock Global CIO of Fundamental Equities -Earl Davis, BMO Global Asset Management Head of Fixed Income & Money Markets -Jonathan Pingle, UBS Chief US Economist
BlackRock's Tony DeSpirito sees 'an opportunity for stock pickers' ahead with earnings estimates normalizing between mega-cap stocks and the rest of the market. BMO's Earl Davis says US 10-yr yields could retest 5% and previews the Fed decision's impact on the treasury market. Jonathan Pingle of UBS reacts to stronger-than-expected ADP labor market data for April and looks ahead to the Fed's rate decision.